Recent model consensus from GFS and regional forecasts positions the overnight minimum near 15–16°C, driven by light southwesterly winds, extensive cloud cover from scattered thunderstorms, and modest radiative cooling under 1012–1016 hPa pressure. These conditions suppress the typical late-August clear-sky drop below seasonal climatological lows of ~15°C. Updated runs show the 2 m temperature stabilizing above 14°C after sunset, with minimal model spread supporting the market’s heavy weighting on 16°C (63%) and 15°C (35.5%). Any clearing trend overnight could allow further cooling toward 14°C, but persistent moisture and weak advection currently limit that downside risk.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月29日華沙的最低溫度？
8月29日華沙的最低溫度？
16°C 88%
13°C 16%
15°C 16%
14°C 11%
$953 交易量
$953 交易量
2026-08-29
11°C or below
1%
12°C
8%
13°C
16%
14°C
11%
15°C
16%
16°C
74%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
16°C 88%
13°C 16%
15°C 16%
14°C 11%
$953 交易量
$953 交易量
2026-08-29
11°C or below
$277 交易量
1%
12°C
$27 交易量
8%
13°C
$16 交易量
16%
14°C
$0 交易量
11%
15°C
$5 交易量
16%
16°C
$59 交易量
74%
17°C
$314 交易量
<1%
18°C
$185 交易量
<1%
19°C
$25 交易量
<1%
20°C
$20 交易量
<1%
21°C or higher
$25 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and regional forecasts positions the overnight minimum near 15–16°C, driven by light southwesterly winds, extensive cloud cover from scattered thunderstorms, and modest radiative cooling under 1012–1016 hPa pressure. These conditions suppress the typical late-August clear-sky drop below seasonal climatological lows of ~15°C. Updated runs show the 2 m temperature stabilizing above 14°C after sunset, with minimal model spread supporting the market’s heavy weighting on 16°C (63%) and 15°C (35.5%). Any clearing trend overnight could allow further cooling toward 14°C, but persistent moisture and weak advection currently limit that downside risk.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$953結束日期
2026-08-29市場開放時間
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and regional forecasts positions the overnight minimum near 15–16°C, driven by light southwesterly winds, extensive cloud cover from scattered thunderstorms, and modest radiative cooling under 1012–1016 hPa pressure. These conditions suppress the typical late-August clear-sky drop below seasonal climatological lows of ~15°C. Updated runs show the 2 m temperature stabilizing above 14°C after sunset, with minimal model spread supporting the market’s heavy weighting on 16°C (63%) and 15°C (35.5%). Any clearing trend overnight could allow further cooling toward 14°C, but persistent moisture and weak advection currently limit that downside risk.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$953結束日期
2026-08-29市場開放時間
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent model consensus from GFS and regional forecasts positions the overnight minimum near 15–16°C, driven by light southwesterly winds, extensive cloud cover from scattered thunderstorms, and modest radiative cooling under 1012–1016 hPa pressure. These conditions suppress the typical late-August clear-sky drop below seasonal climatological lows of ~15°C. Updated runs show the 2 m temperature stabilizing above 14°C after sunset, with minimal model spread supporting the market’s heavy weighting on 16°C (63%) and 15°C (35.5%). Any clearing trend overnight could allow further cooling toward 14°C, but persistent moisture and weak advection currently limit that downside risk.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions