Market-implied odds heavily favor a 15°C low in Warsaw on September 4 because official forecasts and real-time observations from agencies such as Poland’s Institute of Meteorology and Water Management show overnight temperatures stabilizing near this level under persistent cloud cover, moderate westerly winds around 25–30 km/h, and high humidity that limited radiative cooling. Numerical models converged on a minimum of 15°C rather than the seasonal September average low near 9–12°C, driven by warmer-than-normal air masses. Final official readings from stations like Warsaw Chopin Airport could still vary slightly due to microclimate differences or timing of the absolute minimum, though current data make substantial deviations unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月4日華沙的最低溫度？
9月4日華沙的最低溫度？
15°C 99.5%
14°C 1.0%
12°C或以下 <1%
13°C <1%
$990 交易量
$990 交易量
2026-09-04
12°C或以下
否
13°C
否
14°C
否
15°C
是
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C或更高
否
15°C 99.5%
14°C 1.0%
12°C或以下 <1%
13°C <1%
$990 交易量
$990 交易量
2026-09-04
12°C或以下
$110 交易量
否
13°C
$130 交易量
否
14°C
$108 交易量
否
15°C
$85 交易量
是
16°C
$232 交易量
否
17°C
$150 交易量
否
18°C
$35 交易量
否
19°C
$35 交易量
否
20°C
$35 交易量
否
21°C
$35 交易量
否
22°C或更高
$35 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds heavily favor a 15°C low in Warsaw on September 4 because official forecasts and real-time observations from agencies such as Poland’s Institute of Meteorology and Water Management show overnight temperatures stabilizing near this level under persistent cloud cover, moderate westerly winds around 25–30 km/h, and high humidity that limited radiative cooling. Numerical models converged on a minimum of 15°C rather than the seasonal September average low near 9–12°C, driven by warmer-than-normal air masses. Final official readings from stations like Warsaw Chopin Airport could still vary slightly due to microclimate differences or timing of the absolute minimum, though current data make substantial deviations unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$990結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds heavily favor a 15°C low in Warsaw on September 4 because official forecasts and real-time observations from agencies such as Poland’s Institute of Meteorology and Water Management show overnight temperatures stabilizing near this level under persistent cloud cover, moderate westerly winds around 25–30 km/h, and high humidity that limited radiative cooling. Numerical models converged on a minimum of 15°C rather than the seasonal September average low near 9–12°C, driven by warmer-than-normal air masses. Final official readings from stations like Warsaw Chopin Airport could still vary slightly due to microclimate differences or timing of the absolute minimum, though current data make substantial deviations unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$990結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Market-implied odds heavily favor a 15°C low in Warsaw on September 4 because official forecasts and real-time observations from agencies such as Poland’s Institute of Meteorology and Water Management show overnight temperatures stabilizing near this level under persistent cloud cover, moderate westerly winds around 25–30 km/h, and high humidity that limited radiative cooling. Numerical models converged on a minimum of 15°C rather than the seasonal September average low near 9–12°C, driven by warmer-than-normal air masses. Final official readings from stations like Warsaw Chopin Airport could still vary slightly due to microclimate differences or timing of the absolute minimum, though current data make substantial deviations unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions