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icon for May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

icon for May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

6月 10

6月 10

1.10–1.14ºC 59%

1.15–1.19ºC 16%

<1.10ºC 16%

1.20–1.24ºC 7%

Polymarket

$58,978 交易量

1.10–1.14ºC 59%

1.15–1.19ºC 16%

<1.10ºC 16%

1.20–1.24ºC 7%

Polymarket

$58,978 交易量

<1.10ºC

$24,002 交易量

16%

1.10–1.14ºC

$5,389 交易量

59%

1.15–1.19ºC

$8,833 交易量

16%

1.20–1.24ºC

$6,460 交易量

7%

1.25–1.29ºC

$6,539 交易量

3%

>1.29ºC

$7,755 交易量

1%

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent preliminary global surface temperature measurements and forecast model runs point to a May 2026 anomaly most likely settling in the 1.10–1.14 °C range above the pre-industrial baseline. ENSO-neutral conditions persist in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 indices near +0.4 °C and no strong El Niño amplification yet emerging for the month. This aligns with ongoing anthropogenic warming trends while avoiding the sharper monthly spikes seen in prior strong El Niño years. Official agencies including NOAA and Copernicus are expected to release final May figures soon, which will resolve the market; traders are weighting current observational composites and the narrow 0.05 °C band width against typical interannual variability of several tenths of a degree.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$58,978
結束日期
2026-06-10
市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent preliminary global surface temperature measurements and forecast model runs point to a May 2026 anomaly most likely settling in the 1.10–1.14 °C range above the pre-industrial baseline. ENSO-neutral conditions persist in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 indices near +0.4 °C and no strong El Niño amplification yet emerging for the month. This aligns with ongoing anthropogenic warming trends while avoiding the sharper monthly spikes seen in prior strong El Niño years. Official agencies including NOAA and Copernicus are expected to release final May figures soon, which will resolve the market; traders are weighting current observational composites and the narrow 0.05 °C band width against typical interannual variability of several tenths of a degree.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$58,978
結束日期
2026-06-10
市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1.10–1.14ºC" at 59%, followed by "<1.10ºC" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 59¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" has generated $59K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" is "1.10–1.14ºC" at 59%, meaning the market assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<1.10ºC" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.