Ongoing Iranian restrictions amid the US-Israel conflict that began in late February 2026 continue to suppress commercial maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. Shipping data through mid-May shows daily crossings reduced to single digits or low teens against a pre-conflict average exceeding 100 vessels, with over 1,500 ships stranded and new IRGC vetting rules plus toll demands deterring operators. Trader consensus on no return to normal levels by May 31 reflects the absence of diplomatic de-escalation or security guarantees within the remaining two weeks. A sudden ceasefire announcement or verified easing of naval blockades could still shift outcomes before month-end, though current patterns indicate sustained low volumes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$15,160,201 交易量
$15,160,201 交易量
2026-05-31
是
$15,160,201 交易量
$15,160,201 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing Iranian restrictions amid the US-Israel conflict that began in late February 2026 continue to suppress commercial maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. Shipping data through mid-May shows daily crossings reduced to single digits or low teens against a pre-conflict average exceeding 100 vessels, with over 1,500 ships stranded and new IRGC vetting rules plus toll demands deterring operators. Trader consensus on no return to normal levels by May 31 reflects the absence of diplomatic de-escalation or security guarantees within the remaining two weeks. A sudden ceasefire announcement or verified easing of naval blockades could still shift outcomes before month-end, though current patterns indicate sustained low volumes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
交易量
$15,160,201結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing Iranian restrictions amid the US-Israel conflict that began in late February 2026 continue to suppress commercial maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. Shipping data through mid-May shows daily crossings reduced to single digits or low teens against a pre-conflict average exceeding 100 vessels, with over 1,500 ships stranded and new IRGC vetting rules plus toll demands deterring operators. Trader consensus on no return to normal levels by May 31 reflects the absence of diplomatic de-escalation or security guarantees within the remaining two weeks. A sudden ceasefire announcement or verified easing of naval blockades could still shift outcomes before month-end, though current patterns indicate sustained low volumes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$15,161,321結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing Iranian restrictions amid the US-Israel conflict that began in late February 2026 continue to suppress commercial maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. Shipping data through mid-May shows daily crossings reduced to single digits or low teens against a pre-conflict average exceeding 100 vessels, with over 1,500 ships stranded and new IRGC vetting rules plus toll demands deterring operators. Trader consensus on no return to normal levels by May 31 reflects the absence of diplomatic de-escalation or security guarantees within the remaining two weeks. A sudden ceasefire announcement or verified easing of naval blockades could still shift outcomes before month-end, though current patterns indicate sustained low volumes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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