Persistent restrictions imposed by Iran since the February 2026 conflict have kept commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 5 percent of pre-crisis levels, with hundreds of tankers and thousands of mariners still stranded as of mid-May. Recent diplomatic efforts, including a Gulf states push for UN Security Council action on May 7 and warnings from Qatar against further interference, have produced no measurable increase in safe passages. Trader consensus at 95.6 percent for no return to normal traffic by month-end aligns with these verifiable constraints on freedom of navigation and the absence of confirmed de-escalation steps that would reopen the chokepoint within the brief remaining window. A sudden bilateral agreement removing all conditions on transit could still shift the outcome, though no such development has materialized.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$15,204,643 交易量
$15,204,643 交易量
2026-05-31
是
$15,204,643 交易量
$15,204,643 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent restrictions imposed by Iran since the February 2026 conflict have kept commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 5 percent of pre-crisis levels, with hundreds of tankers and thousands of mariners still stranded as of mid-May. Recent diplomatic efforts, including a Gulf states push for UN Security Council action on May 7 and warnings from Qatar against further interference, have produced no measurable increase in safe passages. Trader consensus at 95.6 percent for no return to normal traffic by month-end aligns with these verifiable constraints on freedom of navigation and the absence of confirmed de-escalation steps that would reopen the chokepoint within the brief remaining window. A sudden bilateral agreement removing all conditions on transit could still shift the outcome, though no such development has materialized.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
交易量
$15,204,643結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent restrictions imposed by Iran since the February 2026 conflict have kept commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 5 percent of pre-crisis levels, with hundreds of tankers and thousands of mariners still stranded as of mid-May. Recent diplomatic efforts, including a Gulf states push for UN Security Council action on May 7 and warnings from Qatar against further interference, have produced no measurable increase in safe passages. Trader consensus at 95.6 percent for no return to normal traffic by month-end aligns with these verifiable constraints on freedom of navigation and the absence of confirmed de-escalation steps that would reopen the chokepoint within the brief remaining window. A sudden bilateral agreement removing all conditions on transit could still shift the outcome, though no such development has materialized.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$15,205,716結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent restrictions imposed by Iran since the February 2026 conflict have kept commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 5 percent of pre-crisis levels, with hundreds of tankers and thousands of mariners still stranded as of mid-May. Recent diplomatic efforts, including a Gulf states push for UN Security Council action on May 7 and warnings from Qatar against further interference, have produced no measurable increase in safe passages. Trader consensus at 95.6 percent for no return to normal traffic by month-end aligns with these verifiable constraints on freedom of navigation and the absence of confirmed de-escalation steps that would reopen the chokepoint within the brief remaining window. A sudden bilateral agreement removing all conditions on transit could still shift the outcome, though no such development has materialized.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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