Taschereau’s Quebec National Assembly race remains closely contested ahead of the October 5, 2026 vote, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty among multiple viable contenders in this urban Quebec City riding. Incumbent Étienne Grandmont of Québec solidaire holds a narrow edge in recent projections near 38 percent, supported by the district’s progressive profile and his focus on housing, transport, and environmental issues since winning the seat in 2022. Significant volatility in Parti québécois preparations—including the withdrawal of initial candidate Jeanne Robin, the brief appointment and subsequent exclusion of Vincent Marissal over ethical concerns tied to assembly allowances, and the late selection of Christian Savard—has limited that party’s momentum despite polling in the mid-20s to low 30s. Competition from Liberal Farnell Morisset, Conservative Eliot Estévez-Verville, and CAQ’s Brigitte Martin further fragments the vote, sustaining tight implied probabilities until clearer polling trends or late-campaign developments emerge.