Ongoing diplomatic engagement between the Trump administration and Iranian officials has sustained trader optimism for a nuclear agreement by 2027, even as recent proposals reveal persistent sequencing disputes. Mediators in Oman and Pakistan facilitated exchanges in April and early May 2026, including a U.S. 14-point framework for a ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz access, sanctions relief, and a subsequent 30-day window for nuclear limits such as enrichment curbs and stockpile reductions. Iran’s latest response, however, prioritizes a permanent truce before addressing enrichment, prompting U.S. officials to describe talks as stalled and Tehran as seeking to defer core concessions. These developments, set against earlier 2026 military actions and Iranian domestic protests that prompted renewed contacts, underpin the 57.5% Yes probability as a reflection of continued but uncertain bilateral maneuvering.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$1,334,470 交易量
$1,334,470 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$1,334,470 交易量
$1,334,470 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing diplomatic engagement between the Trump administration and Iranian officials has sustained trader optimism for a nuclear agreement by 2027, even as recent proposals reveal persistent sequencing disputes. Mediators in Oman and Pakistan facilitated exchanges in April and early May 2026, including a U.S. 14-point framework for a ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz access, sanctions relief, and a subsequent 30-day window for nuclear limits such as enrichment curbs and stockpile reductions. Iran’s latest response, however, prioritizes a permanent truce before addressing enrichment, prompting U.S. officials to describe talks as stalled and Tehran as seeking to defer core concessions. These developments, set against earlier 2026 military actions and Iranian domestic protests that prompted renewed contacts, underpin the 57.5% Yes probability as a reflection of continued but uncertain bilateral maneuvering.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
交易量
$1,334,470結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing diplomatic engagement between the Trump administration and Iranian officials has sustained trader optimism for a nuclear agreement by 2027, even as recent proposals reveal persistent sequencing disputes. Mediators in Oman and Pakistan facilitated exchanges in April and early May 2026, including a U.S. 14-point framework for a ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz access, sanctions relief, and a subsequent 30-day window for nuclear limits such as enrichment curbs and stockpile reductions. Iran’s latest response, however, prioritizes a permanent truce before addressing enrichment, prompting U.S. officials to describe talks as stalled and Tehran as seeking to defer core concessions. These developments, set against earlier 2026 military actions and Iranian domestic protests that prompted renewed contacts, underpin the 57.5% Yes probability as a reflection of continued but uncertain bilateral maneuvering.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
交易量
$1,334,470結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic engagement between the Trump administration and Iranian officials has sustained trader optimism for a nuclear agreement by 2027, even as recent proposals reveal persistent sequencing disputes. Mediators in Oman and Pakistan facilitated exchanges in April and early May 2026, including a U.S. 14-point framework for a ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz access, sanctions relief, and a subsequent 30-day window for nuclear limits such as enrichment curbs and stockpile reductions. Iran’s latest response, however, prioritizes a permanent truce before addressing enrichment, prompting U.S. officials to describe talks as stalled and Tehran as seeking to defer core concessions. These developments, set against earlier 2026 military actions and Iranian domestic protests that prompted renewed contacts, underpin the 57.5% Yes probability as a reflection of continued but uncertain bilateral maneuvering.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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