The SNP's selection of Richard Gordon Thomson, a former MP for the neighboring Gordon constituency with extensive local government experience in Aberdeenshire, underpins trader consensus favoring his victory in the 18 June 2026 by-election. The contest follows Stephen Flynn's resignation after his election to the Scottish Parliament, with the SNP retaining a structural advantage in this North Sea energy seat where oil and gas policy remains a central campaign issue. Douglas Lumsden, the Scottish Conservative candidate and MSP, represents the main opposition challenge amid broader UK-wide shifts in voter priorities. Other candidates, including Labour's Nurul Hoque Ali, trail significantly in implied probabilities, reflecting limited recent polling movement or breakthrough developments in the final days before polling.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于理查德·戈登·汤姆森 72%
道格拉斯·卢姆斯登 27%
努鲁尔·霍克·阿里 <1%
乔格·谢尔顿-埃克斯坦 <1%
$10,287 交易量
$10,287 交易量
理查德·戈登·汤姆森
72%
道格拉斯·卢姆斯登
27%
努鲁尔·霍克·阿里
1%
乔格·谢尔顿-埃克斯坦
1%
大卫·巴兰坦
<1%
乔·哈特
<1%
梅尔·沙利文
<1%
理查德·戈登·汤姆森 72%
道格拉斯·卢姆斯登 27%
努鲁尔·霍克·阿里 <1%
乔格·谢尔顿-埃克斯坦 <1%
$10,287 交易量
$10,287 交易量
理查德·戈登·汤姆森
72%
道格拉斯·卢姆斯登
27%
努鲁尔·霍克·阿里
1%
乔格·谢尔顿-埃克斯坦
1%
大卫·巴兰坦
<1%
乔·哈特
<1%
梅尔·沙利文
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).
市场开放时间： Jun 9, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The SNP's selection of Richard Gordon Thomson, a former MP for the neighboring Gordon constituency with extensive local government experience in Aberdeenshire, underpins trader consensus favoring his victory in the 18 June 2026 by-election. The contest follows Stephen Flynn's resignation after his election to the Scottish Parliament, with the SNP retaining a structural advantage in this North Sea energy seat where oil and gas policy remains a central campaign issue. Douglas Lumsden, the Scottish Conservative candidate and MSP, represents the main opposition challenge amid broader UK-wide shifts in voter priorities. Other candidates, including Labour's Nurul Hoque Ali, trail significantly in implied probabilities, reflecting limited recent polling movement or breakthrough developments in the final days before polling.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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