Lara Bird of the Scottish National Party holds an overwhelming 87.5% market consensus as the likely winner of the 18 June 2026 by-election for the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry constituency, reflecting the SNP’s recent hold on the seat and strong local organizational edge in a first-past-the-post contest. The vacancy arose after former SNP MP Stephen Gethins resigned following his election to the Scottish Parliament, triggering nominations that closed on 22 May and confirmed five candidates: Bird for the SNP, Heather Doran for Labour, Jack Cruickshanks for the Conservatives, Bill Reid for Reform UK, and Tanvir Ahmad for the Liberal Democrats. Traders price the remaining named candidates in single digits, consistent with the SNP’s established vote share in the constituency and limited evidence of late shifts from campaigning or external events in the final days before polling. The short timeline to 18 June limits scope for major reversals absent unforeseen developments.