Trader consensus heavily favors Republicans at 72.5% to win Alabama's 2nd Congressional District House seat following the U.S. Supreme Court's recent decision to allow the state's original 2023 congressional map, reverting AL-02 from a court-drawn Black opportunity district—previously won by Democrat Shomari Figures in 2024—to a Republican-leaning constituency with traditional GOP advantages in voter composition and turnout. Governor Kay Ivey responded by scheduling special primary elections on May 19 for AL-02 and three other districts, with Figures advancing unopposed on the Democratic side while Republicans hold a contested primary. This redistricting catalyst has driven the sharp shift in probabilities, underscoring the district's structural tilt ahead of the November 3 general election despite Figures' incumbency.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$28,823 交易量
$28,823 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
73%
民主党
27%
$28,823 交易量
$28,823 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$15,983 交易量
73%
民主党
$12,841 交易量
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors Republicans at 72.5% to win Alabama's 2nd Congressional District House seat following the U.S. Supreme Court's recent decision to allow the state's original 2023 congressional map, reverting AL-02 from a court-drawn Black opportunity district—previously won by Democrat Shomari Figures in 2024—to a Republican-leaning constituency with traditional GOP advantages in voter composition and turnout. Governor Kay Ivey responded by scheduling special primary elections on May 19 for AL-02 and three other districts, with Figures advancing unopposed on the Democratic side while Republicans hold a contested primary. This redistricting catalyst has driven the sharp shift in probabilities, underscoring the district's structural tilt ahead of the November 3 general election despite Figures' incumbency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$28,823结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors Republicans at 72.5% to win Alabama's 2nd Congressional District House seat following the U.S. Supreme Court's recent decision to allow the state's original 2023 congressional map, reverting AL-02 from a court-drawn Black opportunity district—previously won by Democrat Shomari Figures in 2024—to a Republican-leaning constituency with traditional GOP advantages in voter composition and turnout. Governor Kay Ivey responded by scheduling special primary elections on May 19 for AL-02 and three other districts, with Figures advancing unopposed on the Democratic side while Republicans hold a contested primary. This redistricting catalyst has driven the sharp shift in probabilities, underscoring the district's structural tilt ahead of the November 3 general election despite Figures' incumbency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$28,823结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Republicans at 72.5% to win Alabama's 2nd Congressional District House seat following the U.S. Supreme Court's recent decision to allow the state's original 2023 congressional map, reverting AL-02 from a court-drawn Black opportunity district—previously won by Democrat Shomari Figures in 2024—to a Republican-leaning constituency with traditional GOP advantages in voter composition and turnout. Governor Kay Ivey responded by scheduling special primary elections on May 19 for AL-02 and three other districts, with Figures advancing unopposed on the Democratic side while Republicans hold a contested primary. This redistricting catalyst has driven the sharp shift in probabilities, underscoring the district's structural tilt ahead of the November 3 general election despite Figures' incumbency.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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