Incumbent Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a slim trader consensus edge at 52.5% over challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 48% for the October 4, 2026, first-round election, reflecting Bahia's entrenched PT dominance since 2007 despite recent polling volatility. The latest Paraná Pesquisas (May 10-12) shows ACM Neto leading stimulated first-round voting intentions 47.8% to 38.7%, with Jerônimo topping rejection at 37%, yet traders weigh incumbency advantages and undecided voters amid April's Quaest technical tie (41%-37%). High-stakes dynamics hinge on PT machine mobilization in strongholds, opposition gains in Salvador, potential runoff October 25, and catalysts like endorsements or debates that could widen gaps.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Jerônimo Rodrigues 53%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$13,675 交易量
$13,675 交易量
2026-10-04
Jerônimo Rodrigues
53%
ACM Neto
48%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 53%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$13,675 交易量
$13,675 交易量
2026-10-04
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$3,665 交易量
53%
ACM Neto
$3,648 交易量
48%
Kleber Rosa
$1,280 交易量
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$1,937 交易量
<1%
João Roma
$965 交易量
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,059 交易量
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,123 交易量
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a slim trader consensus edge at 52.5% over challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 48% for the October 4, 2026, first-round election, reflecting Bahia's entrenched PT dominance since 2007 despite recent polling volatility. The latest Paraná Pesquisas (May 10-12) shows ACM Neto leading stimulated first-round voting intentions 47.8% to 38.7%, with Jerônimo topping rejection at 37%, yet traders weigh incumbency advantages and undecided voters amid April's Quaest technical tie (41%-37%). High-stakes dynamics hinge on PT machine mobilization in strongholds, opposition gains in Salvador, potential runoff October 25, and catalysts like endorsements or debates that could widen gaps.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
交易量
$13,675结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a slim trader consensus edge at 52.5% over challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 48% for the October 4, 2026, first-round election, reflecting Bahia's entrenched PT dominance since 2007 despite recent polling volatility. The latest Paraná Pesquisas (May 10-12) shows ACM Neto leading stimulated first-round voting intentions 47.8% to 38.7%, with Jerônimo topping rejection at 37%, yet traders weigh incumbency advantages and undecided voters amid April's Quaest technical tie (41%-37%). High-stakes dynamics hinge on PT machine mobilization in strongholds, opposition gains in Salvador, potential runoff October 25, and catalysts like endorsements or debates that could widen gaps.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$13,675结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a slim trader consensus edge at 52.5% over challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 48% for the October 4, 2026, first-round election, reflecting Bahia's entrenched PT dominance since 2007 despite recent polling volatility. The latest Paraná Pesquisas (May 10-12) shows ACM Neto leading stimulated first-round voting intentions 47.8% to 38.7%, with Jerônimo topping rejection at 37%, yet traders weigh incumbency advantages and undecided voters amid April's Quaest technical tie (41%-37%). High-stakes dynamics hinge on PT machine mobilization in strongholds, opposition gains in Salvador, potential runoff October 25, and catalysts like endorsements or debates that could widen gaps.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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