Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first round because recent polls place the Liberal Party senator at 28-35 percent, well ahead of all other non-Lula candidates. As the endorsed standard-bearer for the imprisoned Jair Bolsonaro’s movement, Flávio has consolidated right-wing support in a polarized contest where Lula’s Workers’ Party incumbent holds a first-round lead of roughly 38-42 percent. August campaign launches by both frontrunners and fresh Quaest and PoderData surveys have reinforced this positioning, while lower-polling rivals such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema remain in the low single digits. Structural factors including Jair Bolsonaro’s continued influence and the absence of a stronger competing conservative figure sustain the current implied probability ahead of the vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 85%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦 7.1%
雷南·桑托斯 5.6%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多 <1%
$4,831,591 交易量
$4,831,591 交易量
2026-10-04
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
85%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
7%
雷南·桑托斯
6%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
1%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
<1%
费尔南多·哈达
<1%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
爱德华多·博尔索纳罗
<1%
奥尔多·雷贝洛
<1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
<1%
雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔
<1%
赫拉尔多·阿尔克明
<1%
爱德华多·莱特
<1%
埃尔德·巴尔巴略
<1%
特雷莎·克里斯蒂娜
<1%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 85%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦 7.1%
雷南·桑托斯 5.6%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多 <1%
$4,831,591 交易量
$4,831,591 交易量
2026-10-04
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
$287,981 交易量
85%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
$264,644 交易量
7%
雷南·桑托斯
$1,115,581 交易量
6%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
$363,525 交易量
1%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
$126,390 交易量
<1%
费尔南多·哈达
$712,252 交易量
<1%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
$144,426 交易量
<1%
Romeu Zema
$312,827 交易量
<1%
爱德华多·博尔索纳罗
$109,372 交易量
<1%
奥尔多·雷贝洛
$70,228 交易量
<1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
$207,106 交易量
<1%
雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗
$138,456 交易量
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔
$681,218 交易量
<1%
赫拉尔多·阿尔克明
$162,025 交易量
<1%
爱德华多·莱特
$79,085 交易量
<1%
埃尔德·巴尔巴略
$20,972 交易量
<1%
特雷莎·克里斯蒂娜
$35,504 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first round because recent polls place the Liberal Party senator at 28-35 percent, well ahead of all other non-Lula candidates. As the endorsed standard-bearer for the imprisoned Jair Bolsonaro’s movement, Flávio has consolidated right-wing support in a polarized contest where Lula’s Workers’ Party incumbent holds a first-round lead of roughly 38-42 percent. August campaign launches by both frontrunners and fresh Quaest and PoderData surveys have reinforced this positioning, while lower-polling rivals such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema remain in the low single digits. Structural factors including Jair Bolsonaro’s continued influence and the absence of a stronger competing conservative figure sustain the current implied probability ahead of the vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$4,831,591结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first round because recent polls place the Liberal Party senator at 28-35 percent, well ahead of all other non-Lula candidates. As the endorsed standard-bearer for the imprisoned Jair Bolsonaro’s movement, Flávio has consolidated right-wing support in a polarized contest where Lula’s Workers’ Party incumbent holds a first-round lead of roughly 38-42 percent. August campaign launches by both frontrunners and fresh Quaest and PoderData surveys have reinforced this positioning, while lower-polling rivals such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema remain in the low single digits. Structural factors including Jair Bolsonaro’s continued influence and the absence of a stronger competing conservative figure sustain the current implied probability ahead of the vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$4,831,591结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first round because recent polls place the Liberal Party senator at 28-35 percent, well ahead of all other non-Lula candidates. As the endorsed standard-bearer for the imprisoned Jair Bolsonaro’s movement, Flávio has consolidated right-wing support in a polarized contest where Lula’s Workers’ Party incumbent holds a first-round lead of roughly 38-42 percent. August campaign launches by both frontrunners and fresh Quaest and PoderData surveys have reinforced this positioning, while lower-polling rivals such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema remain in the low single digits. Structural factors including Jair Bolsonaro’s continued influence and the absence of a stronger competing conservative figure sustain the current implied probability ahead of the vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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