In California's top-two primary for the 4th Congressional District on June 2, trader consensus strongly favors incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) and challenger Eric Jones (D) to advance, driven by a fragmented Republican field of six candidates splitting conservative votes in the Democratic-leaning district redrawn via mid-decade redistricting. Recent FEC filings through March 31 show the Democrats dominating fundraising—Jones at $3.25 million raised from tech and finance networks, Thompson with $2.56 million cash on hand from institutional donors—far exceeding GOP totals. A May 7 analysis highlights this financial edge amid early voting underway since May 4, with no public polls but Thompson's party endorsement reinforcing his incumbency advantage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$29,559 交易量
2026-06-02
迈克·汤普森
98%
Eric Jones
90%
希斯·富克森
11%
约翰·韦斯利·泰勒
9%
特雷弗·梅雷尔
7%
劳丽·麦肯齐
5%
莎伦·布朗
2%
Mandy Ghusar
<1%
$29,559 交易量
迈克·汤普森
$7,192 交易量
98%
Eric Jones
$4,825 交易量
90%
希斯·富克森
$396 交易量
11%
约翰·韦斯利·泰勒
$873 交易量
9%
特雷弗·梅雷尔
$9,635 交易量
7%
劳丽·麦肯齐
$710 交易量
5%
莎伦·布朗
$3,402 交易量
2%
Mandy Ghusar
$2,525 交易量
<1%
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In California's top-two primary for the 4th Congressional District on June 2, trader consensus strongly favors incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) and challenger Eric Jones (D) to advance, driven by a fragmented Republican field of six candidates splitting conservative votes in the Democratic-leaning district redrawn via mid-decade redistricting. Recent FEC filings through March 31 show the Democrats dominating fundraising—Jones at $3.25 million raised from tech and finance networks, Thompson with $2.56 million cash on hand from institutional donors—far exceeding GOP totals. A May 7 analysis highlights this financial edge amid early voting underway since May 4, with no public polls but Thompson's party endorsement reinforcing his incumbency advantage.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
交易量
$29,559结束日期
2026-06-02市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In California's top-two primary for the 4th Congressional District on June 2, trader consensus strongly favors incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) and challenger Eric Jones (D) to advance, driven by a fragmented Republican field of six candidates splitting conservative votes in the Democratic-leaning district redrawn via mid-decade redistricting. Recent FEC filings through March 31 show the Democrats dominating fundraising—Jones at $3.25 million raised from tech and finance networks, Thompson with $2.56 million cash on hand from institutional donors—far exceeding GOP totals. A May 7 analysis highlights this financial edge amid early voting underway since May 4, with no public polls but Thompson's party endorsement reinforcing his incumbency advantage.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$29,559结束日期
2026-06-02市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...In California's top-two primary for the 4th Congressional District on June 2, trader consensus strongly favors incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) and challenger Eric Jones (D) to advance, driven by a fragmented Republican field of six candidates splitting conservative votes in the Democratic-leaning district redrawn via mid-decade redistricting. Recent FEC filings through March 31 show the Democrats dominating fundraising—Jones at $3.25 million raised from tech and finance networks, Thompson with $2.56 million cash on hand from institutional donors—far exceeding GOP totals. A May 7 analysis highlights this financial edge amid early voting underway since May 4, with no public polls but Thompson's party endorsement reinforcing his incumbency advantage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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