Recent federal adjustments to Canada's Immigration Levels Plan for 2026–2028 have sharply reduced targets for temporary residents, including international students and workers, while holding permanent resident admissions near 380,000 annually. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections released in February 2026 indicate these measures will produce net outflows of non-permanent residents sufficient to offset natural increase and permanent inflows, resulting in flat population growth for the year. Statistics Canada data confirming consecutive quarterly declines through early 2026 have reinforced trader views that a modest net decrease remains the more likely outcome, consistent with the 61% implied probability assigned to "Down."