Recent inflation data showing euro-area prices rising to 3%—well above the ECB’s 2% target—has driven the 92% implied probability for an ECB rate hike in 2026. Energy costs surged following the Iran conflict, prompting the Governing Council to hold rates steady at its April 30 meeting while explicitly keeping June tightening on the table. Hawkish remarks from officials, including Isabel Schnabel and Fabio Panetta, combined with updated staff projections of 2.6% average inflation for the year, have reinforced expectations of at least one 25-basis-point increase, most likely at the June 11 policy decision. Markets now price roughly 75 basis points of cumulative tightening by year-end, reflecting the central bank’s data-dependent approach to restoring price stability amid elevated geopolitical risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$114,365 交易量
$114,365 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$114,365 交易量
$114,365 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation data showing euro-area prices rising to 3%—well above the ECB’s 2% target—has driven the 92% implied probability for an ECB rate hike in 2026. Energy costs surged following the Iran conflict, prompting the Governing Council to hold rates steady at its April 30 meeting while explicitly keeping June tightening on the table. Hawkish remarks from officials, including Isabel Schnabel and Fabio Panetta, combined with updated staff projections of 2.6% average inflation for the year, have reinforced expectations of at least one 25-basis-point increase, most likely at the June 11 policy decision. Markets now price roughly 75 basis points of cumulative tightening by year-end, reflecting the central bank’s data-dependent approach to restoring price stability amid elevated geopolitical risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
交易量
$114,365结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation data showing euro-area prices rising to 3%—well above the ECB’s 2% target—has driven the 92% implied probability for an ECB rate hike in 2026. Energy costs surged following the Iran conflict, prompting the Governing Council to hold rates steady at its April 30 meeting while explicitly keeping June tightening on the table. Hawkish remarks from officials, including Isabel Schnabel and Fabio Panetta, combined with updated staff projections of 2.6% average inflation for the year, have reinforced expectations of at least one 25-basis-point increase, most likely at the June 11 policy decision. Markets now price roughly 75 basis points of cumulative tightening by year-end, reflecting the central bank’s data-dependent approach to restoring price stability amid elevated geopolitical risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$114,365结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent inflation data showing euro-area prices rising to 3%—well above the ECB’s 2% target—has driven the 92% implied probability for an ECB rate hike in 2026. Energy costs surged following the Iran conflict, prompting the Governing Council to hold rates steady at its April 30 meeting while explicitly keeping June tightening on the table. Hawkish remarks from officials, including Isabel Schnabel and Fabio Panetta, combined with updated staff projections of 2.6% average inflation for the year, have reinforced expectations of at least one 25-basis-point increase, most likely at the June 11 policy decision. Markets now price roughly 75 basis points of cumulative tightening by year-end, reflecting the central bank’s data-dependent approach to restoring price stability amid elevated geopolitical risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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