Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, driven by surging energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, has lifted the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year to around 37 percent while anchoring trader consensus on a hold through year-end at roughly 68.5 percent for no hike. With the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75 percent target range after three consecutive meetings and the unemployment rate near 4.3 percent, markets price in resilient growth and sticky inflation as the dominant forces keeping the central bank on hold. Brokerage forecasts remain split between no cuts and delayed easing into late 2026, with upcoming May inflation and jobs releases plus the next FOMC meeting serving as key swing factors for any shift in the rate path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$1,103,296 交易量
$1,103,296 交易量
2026-12-09
是
$1,103,296 交易量
$1,103,296 交易量
2026-12-09
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, driven by surging energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, has lifted the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year to around 37 percent while anchoring trader consensus on a hold through year-end at roughly 68.5 percent for no hike. With the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75 percent target range after three consecutive meetings and the unemployment rate near 4.3 percent, markets price in resilient growth and sticky inflation as the dominant forces keeping the central bank on hold. Brokerage forecasts remain split between no cuts and delayed easing into late 2026, with upcoming May inflation and jobs releases plus the next FOMC meeting serving as key swing factors for any shift in the rate path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
交易量
$1,103,296结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, driven by surging energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, has lifted the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year to around 37 percent while anchoring trader consensus on a hold through year-end at roughly 68.5 percent for no hike. With the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75 percent target range after three consecutive meetings and the unemployment rate near 4.3 percent, markets price in resilient growth and sticky inflation as the dominant forces keeping the central bank on hold. Brokerage forecasts remain split between no cuts and delayed easing into late 2026, with upcoming May inflation and jobs releases plus the next FOMC meeting serving as key swing factors for any shift in the rate path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,103,296结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, driven by surging energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, has lifted the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year to around 37 percent while anchoring trader consensus on a hold through year-end at roughly 68.5 percent for no hike. With the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75 percent target range after three consecutive meetings and the unemployment rate near 4.3 percent, markets price in resilient growth and sticky inflation as the dominant forces keeping the central bank on hold. Brokerage forecasts remain split between no cuts and delayed easing into late 2026, with upcoming May inflation and jobs releases plus the next FOMC meeting serving as key swing factors for any shift in the rate path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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