The open FL-22 Republican primary, set for August 18 following redistricting that created an open seat, features a crowded field of self-funded candidates emphasizing economy, immigration, and public safety. Recent polling shows Belinda Keiser narrowly ahead of Casey Askar and Michael Carbonara in a statistical tie among likely GOP voters, with over 40 percent undecided, while Club for Growth’s endorsement of Carbonara and its attacks on Askar represent the most notable late development. These factors sustain tight trader-implied probabilities across the top contenders, as no candidate has secured a dominant edge through endorsements, polling momentum, or district-specific turnout patterns. Late campaign events or strong regional performance on primary day could shift the outcome among the leading names.