Scott Singer leads the August 18 Republican primary for Florida’s 25th Congressional District with an 81.5% implied probability on Polymarket, reflecting his edge as former Boca Raton mayor and a late August poll showing him at 21% support among likely voters, ahead of Dan Franzese at 14% and George Moraitis at 13%. Name recognition, a record of repeated property-tax cuts, and an America First platform focused on affordability, regulation reduction, and insurance reform have consolidated support in a fragmented five-candidate field that also includes Raven Harrison and Joseph Kaufman. Traders have priced the remaining candidates at single digits or lower, consistent with the absence of any recent polling surge or major endorsement shifts that would alter the current ordering before primary ballots close.