Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 22°C (44.5% implied probability) for Madrid on May 14, reflecting the latest AEMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on 21–23°C amid a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia. Recent developments include May 12's observed maximum of around 18°C under cloudy conditions at Madrid-Barajas Airport, with model updates yesterday showing increased solar insolation and light southerly winds boosting projected highs from prior cooler 20°C outlooks. Climatological mid-May averages near 22°C align with this positioning, though inherent uncertainty from potential afternoon showers or variable cloud cover could shift outcomes toward 21°C (19%) or 23°C (25%). Watch AEMET's evening forecast refresh for final guidance ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Madrid on May 14?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 14?
22°C 49%
23°C 26%
21°C 20%
24°C 5.3%
最新
$18,874 交易量
最新
$18,874 交易量
2026-05-14
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
5%
21°C
20%
22°C
49%
23°C
26%
24°C
5%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
22°C 49%
23°C 26%
21°C 20%
24°C 5.3%
最新
$18,874 交易量
最新
$18,874 交易量
2026-05-14
18°C or below
$3,394 交易量
<1%
19°C
$2,125 交易量
1%
20°C
$2,470 交易量
5%
21°C
$1,926 交易量
20%
22°C
$1,625 交易量
49%
23°C
$1,373 交易量
26%
24°C
$2,184 交易量
5%
25°C
$1,370 交易量
1%
26°C
$468 交易量
1%
27°C
$886 交易量
<1%
28°C or higher
$1,067 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 22°C (44.5% implied probability) for Madrid on May 14, reflecting the latest AEMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on 21–23°C amid a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia. Recent developments include May 12's observed maximum of around 18°C under cloudy conditions at Madrid-Barajas Airport, with model updates yesterday showing increased solar insolation and light southerly winds boosting projected highs from prior cooler 20°C outlooks. Climatological mid-May averages near 22°C align with this positioning, though inherent uncertainty from potential afternoon showers or variable cloud cover could shift outcomes toward 21°C (19%) or 23°C (25%). Watch AEMET's evening forecast refresh for final guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 12, 2026, 12:44 AM ET
交易量
$18,874结束日期
2026-05-14市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 12:44 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 22°C (44.5% implied probability) for Madrid on May 14, reflecting the latest AEMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on 21–23°C amid a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia. Recent developments include May 12's observed maximum of around 18°C under cloudy conditions at Madrid-Barajas Airport, with model updates yesterday showing increased solar insolation and light southerly winds boosting projected highs from prior cooler 20°C outlooks. Climatological mid-May averages near 22°C align with this positioning, though inherent uncertainty from potential afternoon showers or variable cloud cover could shift outcomes toward 21°C (19%) or 23°C (25%). Watch AEMET's evening forecast refresh for final guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$18,874结束日期
2026-05-14市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 12:44 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 22°C (44.5% implied probability) for Madrid on May 14, reflecting the latest AEMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on 21–23°C amid a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia. Recent developments include May 12's observed maximum of around 18°C under cloudy conditions at Madrid-Barajas Airport, with model updates yesterday showing increased solar insolation and light southerly winds boosting projected highs from prior cooler 20°C outlooks. Climatological mid-May averages near 22°C align with this positioning, though inherent uncertainty from potential afternoon showers or variable cloud cover could shift outcomes toward 21°C (19%) or 23°C (25%). Watch AEMET's evening forecast refresh for final guidance ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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