**Trader consensus strongly favors a maximum temperature of 28°C in Manila on August 5, 2026, with a 95.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects the dominant influence of the southwest monsoon (habagat) and associated low-pressure areas, which have produced persistent cloudy skies, scattered rain showers, and thunderstorms across Metro Manila in recent days. Official PAGASA forecasts for August 5 indicate a high near 29–31°C alongside a 30–90% chance of rain, yet the enhanced cloud cover and precipitation suppress daytime heating by limiting solar radiation and promoting evaporative cooling—conditions typical during peak habagat activity in the wet season. Historical climatology supports this outlook: August averages hover around 31°C, but monsoon-enhanced periods frequently cap highs in the upper 20s°C. Recent observations, including a prior-day maximum of 29.5°C amid similar weather, reinforce trader expectations that the high will settle at or below 28°C. Realistic challenges to this outcome include a temporary weakening of the monsoon or clearing skies that allow stronger insolation, potentially lifting the maximum to 29–30°C. Updated PAGASA model runs or afternoon observations could shift probabilities if rainfall decreases earlier than anticipated.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月5日马尼拉的最高温度？
8月5日马尼拉的最高温度？
28°C 96%
29°C 2%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$20,144 交易量
$20,144 交易量
2026-08-05
22°C或以下
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
96%
29°C
2%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C或更高
<1%
28°C 96%
29°C 2%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$20,144 交易量
$20,144 交易量
2026-08-05
22°C或以下
$938 交易量
<1%
23°C
$267 交易量
<1%
24°C
$434 交易量
<1%
25°C
$440 交易量
<1%
26°C
$1,625 交易量
<1%
27°C
$2,596 交易量
<1%
28°C
$2,837 交易量
96%
29°C
$3,957 交易量
2%
30°C
$2,590 交易量
1%
31°C
$2,631 交易量
<1%
32°C或更高
$1,829 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a maximum temperature of 28°C in Manila on August 5, 2026, with a 95.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects the dominant influence of the southwest monsoon (habagat) and associated low-pressure areas, which have produced persistent cloudy skies, scattered rain showers, and thunderstorms across Metro Manila in recent days. Official PAGASA forecasts for August 5 indicate a high near 29–31°C alongside a 30–90% chance of rain, yet the enhanced cloud cover and precipitation suppress daytime heating by limiting solar radiation and promoting evaporative cooling—conditions typical during peak habagat activity in the wet season.
Historical climatology supports this outlook: August averages hover around 31°C, but monsoon-enhanced periods frequently cap highs in the upper 20s°C. Recent observations, including a prior-day maximum of 29.5°C amid similar weather, reinforce trader expectations that the high will settle at or below 28°C.
Realistic challenges to this outcome include a temporary weakening of the monsoon or clearing skies that allow stronger insolation, potentially lifting the maximum to 29–30°C. Updated PAGASA model runs or afternoon observations could shift probabilities if rainfall decreases earlier than anticipated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 3, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
交易量
$20,144结束日期
2026-08-05市场开放时间
Aug 3, 2026, 12:09 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a maximum temperature of 28°C in Manila on August 5, 2026, with a 95.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects the dominant influence of the southwest monsoon (habagat) and associated low-pressure areas, which have produced persistent cloudy skies, scattered rain showers, and thunderstorms across Metro Manila in recent days. Official PAGASA forecasts for August 5 indicate a high near 29–31°C alongside a 30–90% chance of rain, yet the enhanced cloud cover and precipitation suppress daytime heating by limiting solar radiation and promoting evaporative cooling—conditions typical during peak habagat activity in the wet season.
Historical climatology supports this outlook: August averages hover around 31°C, but monsoon-enhanced periods frequently cap highs in the upper 20s°C. Recent observations, including a prior-day maximum of 29.5°C amid similar weather, reinforce trader expectations that the high will settle at or below 28°C.
Realistic challenges to this outcome include a temporary weakening of the monsoon or clearing skies that allow stronger insolation, potentially lifting the maximum to 29–30°C. Updated PAGASA model runs or afternoon observations could shift probabilities if rainfall decreases earlier than anticipated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$20,144结束日期
2026-08-05市场开放时间
Aug 3, 2026, 12:09 AM ET**Trader consensus strongly favors a maximum temperature of 28°C in Manila on August 5, 2026, with a 95.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects the dominant influence of the southwest monsoon (habagat) and associated low-pressure areas, which have produced persistent cloudy skies, scattered rain showers, and thunderstorms across Metro Manila in recent days. Official PAGASA forecasts for August 5 indicate a high near 29–31°C alongside a 30–90% chance of rain, yet the enhanced cloud cover and precipitation suppress daytime heating by limiting solar radiation and promoting evaporative cooling—conditions typical during peak habagat activity in the wet season. Historical climatology supports this outlook: August averages hover around 31°C, but monsoon-enhanced periods frequently cap highs in the upper 20s°C. Recent observations, including a prior-day maximum of 29.5°C amid similar weather, reinforce trader expectations that the high will settle at or below 28°C. Realistic challenges to this outcome include a temporary weakening of the monsoon or clearing skies that allow stronger insolation, potentially lifting the maximum to 29–30°C. Updated PAGASA model runs or afternoon observations could shift probabilities if rainfall decreases earlier than anticipated.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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