Traders have converged on a market-implied 100% probability for a Tokyo high of exactly 28°C on August 13 because official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and supporting numerical weather models consistently project a daytime maximum at that level amid partly cloudy conditions and scattered showers. This outcome sits below the long-term August climatological average of roughly 31–32°C, reflecting recent atmospheric steering patterns that favor marine air influence and reduced insolation over the Kanto region. Model consensus shows limited spread around this threshold, with ensemble runs indicating minimal risk of significant deviation. The positioning could shift only if rapid clearing of cloud cover or stronger subsidence allows greater surface heating than currently modeled, though such developments remain low-probability given the latest observational data and short time remaining before daily maximum readings are finalized.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月13日东京气温最高？
8月13日东京气温最高？
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$78,618 交易量
$78,618 交易量
2026-08-13
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$78,618 交易量
$78,618 交易量
2026-08-13
23°C or below
$632 交易量
<1%
24°C
$1,830 交易量
<1%
25°C
$2,828 交易量
<1%
26°C
$6,623 交易量
<1%
27°C
$14,023 交易量
<1%
28°C
$16,619 交易量
100%
29°C
$8,475 交易量
<1%
30°C
$8,367 交易量
<1%
31°C
$7,677 交易量
<1%
32°C
$4,440 交易量
<1%
33°C or higher
$7,107 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on a market-implied 100% probability for a Tokyo high of exactly 28°C on August 13 because official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and supporting numerical weather models consistently project a daytime maximum at that level amid partly cloudy conditions and scattered showers. This outcome sits below the long-term August climatological average of roughly 31–32°C, reflecting recent atmospheric steering patterns that favor marine air influence and reduced insolation over the Kanto region. Model consensus shows limited spread around this threshold, with ensemble runs indicating minimal risk of significant deviation. The positioning could shift only if rapid clearing of cloud cover or stronger subsidence allows greater surface heating than currently modeled, though such developments remain low-probability given the latest observational data and short time remaining before daily maximum readings are finalized.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$78,618结束日期
2026-08-13市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on a market-implied 100% probability for a Tokyo high of exactly 28°C on August 13 because official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and supporting numerical weather models consistently project a daytime maximum at that level amid partly cloudy conditions and scattered showers. This outcome sits below the long-term August climatological average of roughly 31–32°C, reflecting recent atmospheric steering patterns that favor marine air influence and reduced insolation over the Kanto region. Model consensus shows limited spread around this threshold, with ensemble runs indicating minimal risk of significant deviation. The positioning could shift only if rapid clearing of cloud cover or stronger subsidence allows greater surface heating than currently modeled, though such developments remain low-probability given the latest observational data and short time remaining before daily maximum readings are finalized.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$78,618结束日期
2026-08-13市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETTraders have converged on a market-implied 100% probability for a Tokyo high of exactly 28°C on August 13 because official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and supporting numerical weather models consistently project a daytime maximum at that level amid partly cloudy conditions and scattered showers. This outcome sits below the long-term August climatological average of roughly 31–32°C, reflecting recent atmospheric steering patterns that favor marine air influence and reduced insolation over the Kanto region. Model consensus shows limited spread around this threshold, with ensemble runs indicating minimal risk of significant deviation. The positioning could shift only if rapid clearing of cloud cover or stronger subsidence allows greater surface heating than currently modeled, though such developments remain low-probability given the latest observational data and short time remaining before daily maximum readings are finalized.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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