Recent forecast models from agencies like IMGW and ECMWF indicate peak temperatures in Warsaw on August 5 driven by warm-air advection under a persistent high-pressure ridge, yielding clear skies and strong diurnal heating. Ensemble outputs cluster maxima around 36–38°C, consistent with the market-implied odds favoring 37°C at 41.5% and nearby bins, following June’s record-breaking European heatwave that elevated baseline soil and atmospheric temperatures. Limited cloud cover and light winds further support intensification potential before any evening cooling or minor frontal influence arrives. Updated runs overnight refined probabilities without shifting the central tendency, underscoring trader focus on real-time observational data from Chopin Airport and surrounding stations for final resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于华沙8月5日最高气温？
华沙8月5日最高气温？
37°C 41%
36°C 25%
38°C 24%
35°C 4.5%
$43,554 交易量
$43,554 交易量
2026-08-05
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C
2%
35°C
5%
36°C
25%
37°C
41%
38°C
24%
39°C
4%
40°C
1%
41°C or higher
<1%
37°C 41%
36°C 25%
38°C 24%
35°C 4.5%
$43,554 交易量
$43,554 交易量
2026-08-05
31°C or below
$6,369 交易量
<1%
32°C
$5,312 交易量
1%
33°C
$3,289 交易量
1%
34°C
$2,647 交易量
2%
35°C
$5,573 交易量
5%
36°C
$2,458 交易量
25%
37°C
$2,048 交易量
41%
38°C
$5,877 交易量
24%
39°C
$5,915 交易量
4%
40°C
$2,677 交易量
1%
41°C or higher
$1,389 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like IMGW and ECMWF indicate peak temperatures in Warsaw on August 5 driven by warm-air advection under a persistent high-pressure ridge, yielding clear skies and strong diurnal heating. Ensemble outputs cluster maxima around 36–38°C, consistent with the market-implied odds favoring 37°C at 41.5% and nearby bins, following June’s record-breaking European heatwave that elevated baseline soil and atmospheric temperatures. Limited cloud cover and light winds further support intensification potential before any evening cooling or minor frontal influence arrives. Updated runs overnight refined probabilities without shifting the central tendency, underscoring trader focus on real-time observational data from Chopin Airport and surrounding stations for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
交易量
$43,554结束日期
2026-08-05市场开放时间
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like IMGW and ECMWF indicate peak temperatures in Warsaw on August 5 driven by warm-air advection under a persistent high-pressure ridge, yielding clear skies and strong diurnal heating. Ensemble outputs cluster maxima around 36–38°C, consistent with the market-implied odds favoring 37°C at 41.5% and nearby bins, following June’s record-breaking European heatwave that elevated baseline soil and atmospheric temperatures. Limited cloud cover and light winds further support intensification potential before any evening cooling or minor frontal influence arrives. Updated runs overnight refined probabilities without shifting the central tendency, underscoring trader focus on real-time observational data from Chopin Airport and surrounding stations for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$43,554结束日期
2026-08-05市场开放时间
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETRecent forecast models from agencies like IMGW and ECMWF indicate peak temperatures in Warsaw on August 5 driven by warm-air advection under a persistent high-pressure ridge, yielding clear skies and strong diurnal heating. Ensemble outputs cluster maxima around 36–38°C, consistent with the market-implied odds favoring 37°C at 41.5% and nearby bins, following June’s record-breaking European heatwave that elevated baseline soil and atmospheric temperatures. Limited cloud cover and light winds further support intensification potential before any evening cooling or minor frontal influence arrives. Updated runs overnight refined probabilities without shifting the central tendency, underscoring trader focus on real-time observational data from Chopin Airport and surrounding stations for final resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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