Recent ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows a weak frontal boundary approaching from the west, increasing cloud cover and bringing a modest chance of light showers or drizzle on September 4, which limits daytime heating compared with the clearer conditions of the prior two days. Surface winds shifting westerly to southwesterly at 10–15 kt will enhance mixing while a gradual pressure fall to near 1010 hPa supports slightly cooler boundary-layer temperatures. Model spread centers the daily maximum between 20–22 °C, with 21 °C favored in most runs because thicker low- and mid-level cloud reduces net shortwave radiation by roughly 20–30 %. Any delay in cloud arrival or lighter precipitation could allow a brief 22–23 °C spike, while faster cooling or heavier rain would cap the peak nearer 20 °C. New model cycles and updated observations over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for shifts in trader positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月4日华沙最高气温？
9月4日华沙最高气温？
21°C 36%
22℃ 31%
20°C 14%
23°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
18°C或以下
3%
19°C
6%
20°C
14%
21°C
36%
22℃
31%
23°C
12%
24°C
4%
25°C
3%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C或更高
2%
21°C 36%
22℃ 31%
20°C 14%
23°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
18°C或以下
$20 交易量
3%
19°C
$0 交易量
6%
20°C
$1 交易量
14%
21°C
$247 交易量
36%
22℃
$106 交易量
31%
23°C
$63 交易量
12%
24°C
$90 交易量
4%
25°C
$0 交易量
3%
26°C
$0 交易量
2%
27°C
$0 交易量
2%
28°C或更高
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows a weak frontal boundary approaching from the west, increasing cloud cover and bringing a modest chance of light showers or drizzle on September 4, which limits daytime heating compared with the clearer conditions of the prior two days. Surface winds shifting westerly to southwesterly at 10–15 kt will enhance mixing while a gradual pressure fall to near 1010 hPa supports slightly cooler boundary-layer temperatures. Model spread centers the daily maximum between 20–22 °C, with 21 °C favored in most runs because thicker low- and mid-level cloud reduces net shortwave radiation by roughly 20–30 %. Any delay in cloud arrival or lighter precipitation could allow a brief 22–23 °C spike, while faster cooling or heavier rain would cap the peak nearer 20 °C. New model cycles and updated observations over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$527结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows a weak frontal boundary approaching from the west, increasing cloud cover and bringing a modest chance of light showers or drizzle on September 4, which limits daytime heating compared with the clearer conditions of the prior two days. Surface winds shifting westerly to southwesterly at 10–15 kt will enhance mixing while a gradual pressure fall to near 1010 hPa supports slightly cooler boundary-layer temperatures. Model spread centers the daily maximum between 20–22 °C, with 21 °C favored in most runs because thicker low- and mid-level cloud reduces net shortwave radiation by roughly 20–30 %. Any delay in cloud arrival or lighter precipitation could allow a brief 22–23 °C spike, while faster cooling or heavier rain would cap the peak nearer 20 °C. New model cycles and updated observations over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$527结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows a weak frontal boundary approaching from the west, increasing cloud cover and bringing a modest chance of light showers or drizzle on September 4, which limits daytime heating compared with the clearer conditions of the prior two days. Surface winds shifting westerly to southwesterly at 10–15 kt will enhance mixing while a gradual pressure fall to near 1010 hPa supports slightly cooler boundary-layer temperatures. Model spread centers the daily maximum between 20–22 °C, with 21 °C favored in most runs because thicker low- and mid-level cloud reduces net shortwave radiation by roughly 20–30 %. Any delay in cloud arrival or lighter precipitation could allow a brief 22–23 °C spike, while faster cooling or heavier rain would cap the peak nearer 20 °C. New model cycles and updated observations over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for shifts in trader positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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