**Strong northwesterly flow and mostly fine conditions are positioning 16°C as the market favorite for Wellington’s August 31 maximum, with 17°C as the clear secondary outcome.** Official MetService guidance and multiple models currently forecast a high near 15°C under strong westerlies shifting northerly, with only limited morning shower risk and good solar heating potential. Recent late-August observations show daytime maxima reaching 16–17°C on several days amid similar wind regimes, supporting trader expectations that the peak could edge higher than the baseline forecast. Wellington’s winter temperatures are highly sensitive to wind direction and orographic effects from the surrounding hills; persistent northwesterlies often deliver milder maritime air and localized warming. Ensemble guidance and short-range updates through August 29 indicate this pattern holding into Monday, with limited model spread on the 14–17°C range. Resolution hinges on the exact afternoon maximum recorded at the official site, so any late forecast shift from ECMWF or MetService model runs could quickly adjust implied probabilities. Traders are assigning the bulk of probability to the upper end of the typical late-winter range given the current setup.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月31日惠灵顿的最高温度？
8月31日惠灵顿的最高温度？
16°C 56%
17°C 28%
15°C 12%
18°C 2.4%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
12%
16°C
56%
17°C
28%
18°C
2%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
16°C 56%
17°C 28%
15°C 12%
18°C 2.4%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
11°C or below
$186 交易量
<1%
12°C
$213 交易量
<1%
13°C
$288 交易量
1%
14°C
$341 交易量
2%
15°C
$1,705 交易量
12%
16°C
$2,505 交易量
56%
17°C
$773 交易量
28%
18°C
$130 交易量
2%
19°C
$209 交易量
<1%
20°C
$196 交易量
<1%
21°C or higher
$186 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong northwesterly flow and mostly fine conditions are positioning 16°C as the market favorite for Wellington’s August 31 maximum, with 17°C as the clear secondary outcome.** Official MetService guidance and multiple models currently forecast a high near 15°C under strong westerlies shifting northerly, with only limited morning shower risk and good solar heating potential. Recent late-August observations show daytime maxima reaching 16–17°C on several days amid similar wind regimes, supporting trader expectations that the peak could edge higher than the baseline forecast.
Wellington’s winter temperatures are highly sensitive to wind direction and orographic effects from the surrounding hills; persistent northwesterlies often deliver milder maritime air and localized warming. Ensemble guidance and short-range updates through August 29 indicate this pattern holding into Monday, with limited model spread on the 14–17°C range. Resolution hinges on the exact afternoon maximum recorded at the official site, so any late forecast shift from ECMWF or MetService model runs could quickly adjust implied probabilities. Traders are assigning the bulk of probability to the upper end of the typical late-winter range given the current setup.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$6,629结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong northwesterly flow and mostly fine conditions are positioning 16°C as the market favorite for Wellington’s August 31 maximum, with 17°C as the clear secondary outcome.** Official MetService guidance and multiple models currently forecast a high near 15°C under strong westerlies shifting northerly, with only limited morning shower risk and good solar heating potential. Recent late-August observations show daytime maxima reaching 16–17°C on several days amid similar wind regimes, supporting trader expectations that the peak could edge higher than the baseline forecast.
Wellington’s winter temperatures are highly sensitive to wind direction and orographic effects from the surrounding hills; persistent northwesterlies often deliver milder maritime air and localized warming. Ensemble guidance and short-range updates through August 29 indicate this pattern holding into Monday, with limited model spread on the 14–17°C range. Resolution hinges on the exact afternoon maximum recorded at the official site, so any late forecast shift from ECMWF or MetService model runs could quickly adjust implied probabilities. Traders are assigning the bulk of probability to the upper end of the typical late-winter range given the current setup.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$6,629结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ET**Strong northwesterly flow and mostly fine conditions are positioning 16°C as the market favorite for Wellington’s August 31 maximum, with 17°C as the clear secondary outcome.** Official MetService guidance and multiple models currently forecast a high near 15°C under strong westerlies shifting northerly, with only limited morning shower risk and good solar heating potential. Recent late-August observations show daytime maxima reaching 16–17°C on several days amid similar wind regimes, supporting trader expectations that the peak could edge higher than the baseline forecast. Wellington’s winter temperatures are highly sensitive to wind direction and orographic effects from the surrounding hills; persistent northwesterlies often deliver milder maritime air and localized warming. Ensemble guidance and short-range updates through August 29 indicate this pattern holding into Monday, with limited model spread on the 14–17°C range. Resolution hinges on the exact afternoon maximum recorded at the official site, so any late forecast shift from ECMWF or MetService model runs could quickly adjust implied probabilities. Traders are assigning the bulk of probability to the upper end of the typical late-winter range given the current setup.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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