Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli military operations in 2026 have centered on sustained airstrikes and ground actions against Iran since the February 28 outbreak of direct conflict, alongside expanded targeting of Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon. These actions, including strikes on leadership and military sites in both countries, form the core of recent activity amid ongoing proxy confrontations involving groups such as the Houthis and Iraqi militias. Renewed Israel-Iran exchanges in early June, following the April ceasefire, have reinforced trader focus on these two primary fronts without clear expansion to additional sovereign states. With half the year elapsed and diplomatic efforts ongoing, the market's emphasis on four or five countries reflects the current concentration of verified strikes and limited evidence of broader escalation to new targets like Syria or Yemen in the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Israeli military operations in 2026 have centered on sustained airstrikes and ground actions against Iran since the February 28 outbreak of direct conflict, alongside expanded targeting of Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon. These actions, including strikes on leadership and military sites in both countries, form the core of recent activity amid ongoing proxy confrontations involving groups such as the Houthis and Iraqi militias. Renewed Israel-Iran exchanges in early June, following the April ceasefire, have reinforced trader focus on these two primary fronts without clear expansion to additional sovereign states. With half the year elapsed and diplomatic efforts ongoing, the market's emphasis on four or five countries reflects the current concentration of verified strikes and limited evidence of broader escalation to new targets like Syria or Yemen in the resolution window.
Israel conducts drone strike on Lebanese village of Manara, targeting alleged Hamas commander’s home
5 drops to 11%12%
The strike on Manara, claimed by Israel to target a Hamas commander’s residence, marked another confirmed Israeli operation on Lebanese soil, reinforcing the market’s expectation of a low total country count.
May 6 2026
U.S.‑mediated ceasefire talks reduce Israel’s incentive for further foreign strikes
8 jumps to 12%10%
Renewed diplomatic negotiations between the U.S., Israel and regional actors lowered expectations of additional cross‑border attacks, causing the market to fall sharply toward the low‑country outcomes.
Apr 30 2026
Israeli airstrikes kill 10 in southern Lebanon amid Hezbollah rocket fire
Israel conducted several airstrikes in southern Lebanon killing at least 10 people, while Hezbollah fired rockets and drones at northern Israel. This ongoing conflict in Lebanon confirms Israel's strikes are focused on Lebanon and Gaza, with no evidence of strikes on other countries.
Apr 27 2026
Israel conducts limited drone strikes on Iranian‑backed militia bases in Iraq
8 plunges to 2%22%
For the first time Israel hit targets inside Iraq, expanding the list of countries under attack and nudging the market back up toward the 8‑country outcome.
Apr 24 2026
Israel warns Lebanese civilians to flee ahead of strikes in southern Lebanon
Israel's military warned residents in seven southern Lebanese towns to evacuate ahead of strikes targeting Hezbollah militants. This continued Israeli military activity in Lebanon reinforced the expectation of strikes limited to Lebanon and Gaza.
Apr 17 2026
10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah takes effect in Lebanon
A ceasefire was agreed between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, temporarily halting hostilities. Despite this, Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket fire continued sporadically, indicating ongoing conflict primarily limited to Lebanon and Gaza.
Apr 10 2026
Israel launches airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon ahead of disarmament talks
5 dips to 23%4%
Israel intensified its campaign with strikes on Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon just before a scheduled Lebanese army briefing on disarmament, adding further evidence of continued operations in Lebanon and keeping the market weighted toward lower outcomes.
Apr 10 2026
Israel pauses cross‑border strikes after EU energy‑security summit
7 plunges to 24%15%
The EU’s focus on regional energy security and calls for de‑escalation led Israel to temporarily halt operations beyond Lebanon, pulling the market down toward lower outcomes.
Apr 1 2026
Iranian missile strikes hit southern Israeli cities near nuclear site
Iranian missiles struck the southern Israeli cities of Dimona and Arad near Israel's main nuclear research center, causing injuries and damage. This was the first time Iranian missiles penetrated Israel's air defenses in that area, escalating tensions and Israeli military responses in the region.
Mar 22 2026
Hezbollah fires rockets into Israel, prompting retaliatory Israeli strikes on Jordanian border outposts
7 jumps to 39%11%
Hezbollah’s rocket fire led Israel to strike a Jordanian border outpost, marking a new country being hit and causing a sharp price increase toward the 7‑country outcome.
Mar 13 2026
Israeli strike kills 12 medical workers in southern Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike targeted a health center run by Hezbollah's health arm in southern Lebanon, killing 12 medical workers. This marked one of the deadliest strikes in Lebanon since the war began, highlighting Israel's targeting of Hezbollah's civilian and military infrastructure. This event reinforced expectations of Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
Mar 5 2026
Israel launches a series of strikes on Syrian air bases from Lebanon
6 surges to 28%15%
Israel used drones and missiles launched from Lebanese territory to hit Syrian military installations, marking the first confirmed strike on a third country and pushing the market toward the highest country‑count outcomes.
Mar 2 2026
Israel conducts drone strike on car in Yanouh, Lebanon, killing three including a child
5 drops to 23%8%
A drone strike in the Lebanese village of Yanouh killed three civilians, confirming another Israeli operation on Lebanese territory and reinforcing the market’s view that the count of struck countries remains low.
Feb 14 2026
Israel warns of imminent strikes on two villages in eastern Bekaa Valley
Israel’s Arabic‑language spokesman posted warnings that the military would strike two villages in the Bekaa Valley, signaling a likely upcoming operation on Lebanese soil and prompting market participants to lower expectations for higher country counts.
Feb 14 2026
U.S. President Trump expected to announce Board of Peace for Gaza
5 dips to 13%2%
Anticipation of a diplomatic breakthrough in Gaza reduced expectations of further cross‑border strikes, pulling the market down as traders saw less incentive for Israel to open new fronts.
Jan 12 2026
Israel conducts drone strike on a Hamas ally in southern Lebanon
5 jumps to 15%8%
An Israeli drone killed three people, including a child, in the village of Yanouh, targeting a local official linked to Hamas. The incident suggested Israel might expand strikes to other neighboring states, lifting the market again.
Dec 30 2025
Israel announces temporary ceasefire on Lebanon front after U.N. pressure
5 plunges to 7%21%
Following a U.N. resolution urging restraint, Israel halted major air operations in Lebanon for a week, causing the market to drop as the likelihood of new foreign strike targets fell.
Dec 20 2025
Israel strikes a Hezbollah‑run health centre in Burj Qalaouiyah, Lebanon
5 surges to 28%22%
A drone strike hit a Hezbollah‑affiliated medical facility, killing 12 health workers. Targeting civilian‑linked Hezbollah infrastructure heightened concerns of broader regional strikes, nudging prices upward again.
Dec 2 2025
U.S.‑brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon reduce immediate strike risk
5 dips to 6%4%
Direct diplomatic talks, mediated by the United States, were held in Beirut, leading both sides to pause large‑scale air operations. The market retreated sharply as traders expected fewer new foreign strike targets.
Dec 1 2025
Israel conducts airstrike in southern Lebanon killing civilians
5 dips to 7%2%
An Israeli strike in the village of Habboush near Nabatiyeh killed six civilians, reinforcing the perception that Israel is expanding its campaign into Lebanon and further confirming Lebanon as a target country.
Nov 22 2025
Israel strikes multiple sites in southern and eastern Lebanon, including Sidon
5 plunges to 9%38%
The Israeli Air Force hit a commercial building in Sidon and other locations in the Bekaa Valley, marking the first confirmed strike on Lebanese territory in the analysis window and adding Lebanon to the count of countries targeted.
Nov 15 2025
Israel conducts large‑scale airstrikes on southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah sites
5 plunges to 10%37%
Israel launched dozens of drone and missile strikes on villages in southern Lebanon, killing at least ten people. The escalation raised fears of further strikes beyond Lebanon, pushing the market toward higher country‑count outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli military operations in 2026 have centered on sustained airstrikes and ground actions against Iran since the February 28 outbreak of direct conflict, alongside expanded targeting of Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon. These actions, including strikes on leadership and military sites in both countries, form the core of recent activity amid ongoing proxy confrontations involving groups such as the Houthis and Iraqi militias. Renewed Israel-Iran exchanges in early June, following the April ceasefire, have reinforced trader focus on these two primary fronts without clear expansion to additional sovereign states. With half the year elapsed and diplomatic efforts ongoing, the market's emphasis on four or five countries reflects the current concentration of verified strikes and limited evidence of broader escalation to new targets like Syria or Yemen in the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Israeli military operations in 2026 have centered on sustained airstrikes and ground actions against Iran since the February 28 outbreak of direct conflict, alongside expanded targeting of Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon. These actions, including strikes on leadership and military sites in both countries, form the core of recent activity amid ongoing proxy confrontations involving groups such as the Houthis and Iraqi militias. Renewed Israel-Iran exchanges in early June, following the April ceasefire, have reinforced trader focus on these two primary fronts without clear expansion to additional sovereign states. With half the year elapsed and diplomatic efforts ongoing, the market's emphasis on four or five countries reflects the current concentration of verified strikes and limited evidence of broader escalation to new targets like Syria or Yemen in the resolution window.
Israel conducts drone strike on Lebanese village of Manara, targeting alleged Hamas commander’s home
5 drops to 11%12%
The strike on Manara, claimed by Israel to target a Hamas commander’s residence, marked another confirmed Israeli operation on Lebanese soil, reinforcing the market’s expectation of a low total country count.
May 6 2026
U.S.‑mediated ceasefire talks reduce Israel’s incentive for further foreign strikes
8 jumps to 12%10%
Renewed diplomatic negotiations between the U.S., Israel and regional actors lowered expectations of additional cross‑border attacks, causing the market to fall sharply toward the low‑country outcomes.
Apr 30 2026
Israeli airstrikes kill 10 in southern Lebanon amid Hezbollah rocket fire
Israel conducted several airstrikes in southern Lebanon killing at least 10 people, while Hezbollah fired rockets and drones at northern Israel. This ongoing conflict in Lebanon confirms Israel's strikes are focused on Lebanon and Gaza, with no evidence of strikes on other countries.
Apr 27 2026
Israel conducts limited drone strikes on Iranian‑backed militia bases in Iraq
8 plunges to 2%22%
For the first time Israel hit targets inside Iraq, expanding the list of countries under attack and nudging the market back up toward the 8‑country outcome.
Apr 24 2026
Israel warns Lebanese civilians to flee ahead of strikes in southern Lebanon
Israel's military warned residents in seven southern Lebanese towns to evacuate ahead of strikes targeting Hezbollah militants. This continued Israeli military activity in Lebanon reinforced the expectation of strikes limited to Lebanon and Gaza.
Apr 17 2026
10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah takes effect in Lebanon
A ceasefire was agreed between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, temporarily halting hostilities. Despite this, Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket fire continued sporadically, indicating ongoing conflict primarily limited to Lebanon and Gaza.
Apr 10 2026
Israel launches airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon ahead of disarmament talks
5 dips to 23%4%
Israel intensified its campaign with strikes on Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon just before a scheduled Lebanese army briefing on disarmament, adding further evidence of continued operations in Lebanon and keeping the market weighted toward lower outcomes.
Apr 10 2026
Israel pauses cross‑border strikes after EU energy‑security summit
7 plunges to 24%15%
The EU’s focus on regional energy security and calls for de‑escalation led Israel to temporarily halt operations beyond Lebanon, pulling the market down toward lower outcomes.
Apr 1 2026
Iranian missile strikes hit southern Israeli cities near nuclear site
Iranian missiles struck the southern Israeli cities of Dimona and Arad near Israel's main nuclear research center, causing injuries and damage. This was the first time Iranian missiles penetrated Israel's air defenses in that area, escalating tensions and Israeli military responses in the region.
Mar 22 2026
Hezbollah fires rockets into Israel, prompting retaliatory Israeli strikes on Jordanian border outposts
7 jumps to 39%11%
Hezbollah’s rocket fire led Israel to strike a Jordanian border outpost, marking a new country being hit and causing a sharp price increase toward the 7‑country outcome.
Mar 13 2026
Israeli strike kills 12 medical workers in southern Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike targeted a health center run by Hezbollah's health arm in southern Lebanon, killing 12 medical workers. This marked one of the deadliest strikes in Lebanon since the war began, highlighting Israel's targeting of Hezbollah's civilian and military infrastructure. This event reinforced expectations of Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
Mar 5 2026
Israel launches a series of strikes on Syrian air bases from Lebanon
6 surges to 28%15%
Israel used drones and missiles launched from Lebanese territory to hit Syrian military installations, marking the first confirmed strike on a third country and pushing the market toward the highest country‑count outcomes.
Mar 2 2026
Israel conducts drone strike on car in Yanouh, Lebanon, killing three including a child
5 drops to 23%8%
A drone strike in the Lebanese village of Yanouh killed three civilians, confirming another Israeli operation on Lebanese territory and reinforcing the market’s view that the count of struck countries remains low.
Feb 14 2026
Israel warns of imminent strikes on two villages in eastern Bekaa Valley
Israel’s Arabic‑language spokesman posted warnings that the military would strike two villages in the Bekaa Valley, signaling a likely upcoming operation on Lebanese soil and prompting market participants to lower expectations for higher country counts.
Feb 14 2026
U.S. President Trump expected to announce Board of Peace for Gaza
5 dips to 13%2%
Anticipation of a diplomatic breakthrough in Gaza reduced expectations of further cross‑border strikes, pulling the market down as traders saw less incentive for Israel to open new fronts.
Jan 12 2026
Israel conducts drone strike on a Hamas ally in southern Lebanon
5 jumps to 15%8%
An Israeli drone killed three people, including a child, in the village of Yanouh, targeting a local official linked to Hamas. The incident suggested Israel might expand strikes to other neighboring states, lifting the market again.
Dec 30 2025
Israel announces temporary ceasefire on Lebanon front after U.N. pressure
5 plunges to 7%21%
Following a U.N. resolution urging restraint, Israel halted major air operations in Lebanon for a week, causing the market to drop as the likelihood of new foreign strike targets fell.
Dec 20 2025
Israel strikes a Hezbollah‑run health centre in Burj Qalaouiyah, Lebanon
5 surges to 28%22%
A drone strike hit a Hezbollah‑affiliated medical facility, killing 12 health workers. Targeting civilian‑linked Hezbollah infrastructure heightened concerns of broader regional strikes, nudging prices upward again.
Dec 2 2025
U.S.‑brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon reduce immediate strike risk
5 dips to 6%4%
Direct diplomatic talks, mediated by the United States, were held in Beirut, leading both sides to pause large‑scale air operations. The market retreated sharply as traders expected fewer new foreign strike targets.
Dec 1 2025
Israel conducts airstrike in southern Lebanon killing civilians
5 dips to 7%2%
An Israeli strike in the village of Habboush near Nabatiyeh killed six civilians, reinforcing the perception that Israel is expanding its campaign into Lebanon and further confirming Lebanon as a target country.
Nov 22 2025
Israel strikes multiple sites in southern and eastern Lebanon, including Sidon
5 plunges to 9%38%
The Israeli Air Force hit a commercial building in Sidon and other locations in the Bekaa Valley, marking the first confirmed strike on Lebanese territory in the analysis window and adding Lebanon to the count of countries targeted.
Nov 15 2025
Israel conducts large‑scale airstrikes on southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah sites
5 plunges to 10%37%
Israel launched dozens of drone and missile strikes on villages in southern Lebanon, killing at least ten people. The escalation raised fears of further strikes beyond Lebanon, pushing the market toward higher country‑count outcomes.
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题
"How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 16 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"4"，概率为 55%，其次是"5"，概率为 30%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 55¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 55%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。
截至目前，"How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?"已产生 $7.2 million 的总交易量（自Nov 13, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。
要在"How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 16 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。
"How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?"的当前领先者是"4"，概率为 55%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 55%。紧随其后的结果是"5"，概率为 30%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。
"How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。
可以。你不需要交易也能保持了解。本页是"How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?"的实时跟踪器。结果概率会随着新交易的进入而实时更新。你可以将本页加入书签并查看评论区以了解其他交易者的看法。你还可以使用图表上的时间范围筛选器查看赔率随时间的变化情况。
Polymarket 的赔率由真实交易者用真金白银支持其判断来设定，这往往能产生准确的预测。“How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?”的交易量达到 $7.2 million，这些价格汇聚了数千名参与者的集体知识和信念——通常优于民调、专家预测和传统调查。像 Polymarket 这样的预测市场有着出色的准确性记录，尤其是当事件接近结算日期时。例如，Polymarket 的一个月准确度评分为 94%。有关 Polymarket 预测准确度的最新统计数据，请访问 准确度页面。
要在"How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?"上进行第一笔交易，请注册免费的 Polymarket 账户，并使用加密货币、信用卡或借记卡或银行转账充值。账户充值后，返回本页，选择你想交易的结果，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你是预测市场的新手，请点击任何 Polymarket 页面顶部的"运作方式"链接，获取分步指南。
在 Polymarket 上，每个结果的价格代表市场的隐含概率。在"How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?"市场中，"4"的价格为 55¢，意味着交易者集体认为"4"成为正确结果的概率约为 55%。如果你以 55¢ 买入"是"份额且结果正确，你将获得每份 $1.00——利润为每份 45¢。如果不正确，这些份额价值 $0。
"How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?"市场预计在 Dec 30, 2026 前后结算。这意味着在此日期之前，交易将保持开放，赔率将继续变化。具体结算时间取决于官方结果何时可用，如"规则"部分所述。
"How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?"市场有一个活跃的社区，有 512 条评论，交易者在此分享分析、讨论结果和最新动态。向下滚动到评论区，阅读其他参与者的观点。你还可以按"持仓大户"筛选，或查看"活动"标签以获取实时交易动态。
Polymarket 是全球最大的预测市场，你可以在此了解最新动态并利用自己对现实事件的知识获利。交易者买卖涵盖政治选举、加密货币、金融、体育、科技和文化等各种主题的结果份额，包括"How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?"等市场。价格反映由金融信念支持的实时概率，通常比民调、专家或传统调查提供更快、更准确的信号。
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题