Recent Météo-France and ECMWF ensemble forecasts project an overnight minimum near 10°C at the Le Bourget station, driving the market’s 97.5% implied probability for that exact bracket. This consensus reflects stable high-pressure conditions and modest northeasterly flow that limit nocturnal cooling below typical May climatology. Official guidance shows tight model agreement on the 9–11°C range, consistent with historical May minima averaging around 10°C. A modest shift in cloud cover, wind speed, or urban heat-island effects could still produce a 9°C or 11°C reading at resolution, though current observational trends make such outcomes unlikely before the 12:00 UTC cutoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月17日巴黎最低气温?
10°C 96.6%
9°C 2.3%
11°C <1%
8°C <1%
$7,566 交易量
$7,566 交易量
2°C或以下
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
97%
11°C
<1%
12°C或更高
<1%
10°C 96.6%
9°C 2.3%
11°C <1%
8°C <1%
$7,566 交易量
$7,566 交易量
2°C或以下
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
97%
11°C
<1%
12°C或更高
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent Météo-France and ECMWF ensemble forecasts project an overnight minimum near 10°C at the Le Bourget station, driving the market’s 97.5% implied probability for that exact bracket. This consensus reflects stable high-pressure conditions and modest northeasterly flow that limit nocturnal cooling below typical May climatology. Official guidance shows tight model agreement on the 9–11°C range, consistent with historical May minima averaging around 10°C. A modest shift in cloud cover, wind speed, or urban heat-island effects could still produce a 9°C or 11°C reading at resolution, though current observational trends make such outcomes unlikely before the 12:00 UTC cutoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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