Trader consensus favors Dan Cox at 57.5% to win the Maryland Republican gubernatorial primary on June 23, driven by his name recognition as the 2022 nominee—who secured the nomination with strong conservative base support—and recent filing for a rematch against Democratic incumbent Wes Moore. Ed Hale trails at 30.4%, positioning as a fiscally conservative businessman alternative amid a fragmented field, though both frontrunners skipped the first Republican debate in late March, signaling confidence in their standings. With no public polls released in the past 30 days, low-turnout primary dynamics favor Cox's established party support, while upcoming early voting could shift momentum if Hale consolidates moderate voters. Larry Hogan lingers at low odds despite past popularity, reflecting no active campaign.