Elaine Pelino leads the Rhode Island Republican primary for governor in trader assessments, reflecting her edge in polling among likely primary voters and stronger resonance with the party's conservative base ahead of the September 9 contest. Aaron Guckian, the Rhode Island Republican Party-endorsed candidate and 2022 lieutenant governor nominee, trails as he emphasizes a more centrist positioning. A University of New Hampshire survey from June placed Pelino well ahead of Guckian, though a large share of respondents remained undecided at the time. The two main contenders debated in mid-August, clashing over immigration policy, party direction, and campaign tactics. Minor candidates including Robert Raimondo show minimal support. The short timeline to the primary focuses attention on base turnout and any remaining shifts in voter sentiment.