The open seat in Texas's 23rd congressional district, following incumbent Republican Tony Gonzales's April 2026 resignation amid scandal, has shaped trader positioning for the November general election. Brandon Herrera secured the Republican nomination after prevailing in the primary process, while Katy Padilla Stout won the Democratic primary outright. The district's Republican lean, reinforced by prior redistricting and historical voting patterns, underpins the 69.5% implied probability for the GOP nominee despite a March 2026 poll showing a narrow head-to-head contest. Limited recent polling and the absence of further major developments have kept probabilities stable, with the Republican candidate favored in line with the seat's partisan voting index.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$31,480 交易量
$31,480 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
68%
民主党
32%
$31,480 交易量
$31,480 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$17,989 交易量
68%
民主党
$13,492 交易量
32%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Texas's 23rd congressional district, following incumbent Republican Tony Gonzales's April 2026 resignation amid scandal, has shaped trader positioning for the November general election. Brandon Herrera secured the Republican nomination after prevailing in the primary process, while Katy Padilla Stout won the Democratic primary outright. The district's Republican lean, reinforced by prior redistricting and historical voting patterns, underpins the 69.5% implied probability for the GOP nominee despite a March 2026 poll showing a narrow head-to-head contest. Limited recent polling and the absence of further major developments have kept probabilities stable, with the Republican candidate favored in line with the seat's partisan voting index.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$31,480结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Texas's 23rd congressional district, following incumbent Republican Tony Gonzales's April 2026 resignation amid scandal, has shaped trader positioning for the November general election. Brandon Herrera secured the Republican nomination after prevailing in the primary process, while Katy Padilla Stout won the Democratic primary outright. The district's Republican lean, reinforced by prior redistricting and historical voting patterns, underpins the 69.5% implied probability for the GOP nominee despite a March 2026 poll showing a narrow head-to-head contest. Limited recent polling and the absence of further major developments have kept probabilities stable, with the Republican candidate favored in line with the seat's partisan voting index.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$31,480结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat in Texas's 23rd congressional district, following incumbent Republican Tony Gonzales's April 2026 resignation amid scandal, has shaped trader positioning for the November general election. Brandon Herrera secured the Republican nomination after prevailing in the primary process, while Katy Padilla Stout won the Democratic primary outright. The district's Republican lean, reinforced by prior redistricting and historical voting patterns, underpins the 69.5% implied probability for the GOP nominee despite a March 2026 poll showing a narrow head-to-head contest. Limited recent polling and the absence of further major developments have kept probabilities stable, with the Republican candidate favored in line with the seat's partisan voting index.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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