Jerome Powell’s second four-year term as Federal Reserve Chair concluded on May 15, prompting traders to assign the highest probability to a departure in the May 15–22 window at 50.9 percent, with the following week close behind at 42.5 percent. Senate confirmation of successor Kevin Warsh occurred in the final days before the term expired, yet the swearing-in remains pending, leaving Powell temporarily serving as chair pro tempore. This procedural gap, combined with Powell’s stated plan to remain on the Board of Governors for an undetermined period amid ongoing legal and institutional matters, has kept the two leading intervals tightly matched. Any acceleration or delay in Warsh’s formal assumption of the chair could quickly shift the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
May 15–22 46.0%
May 23–29 28.7%
May 30–June 5 6.2%
June 6–12 2.6%
$169,679 交易量
$169,679 交易量
2026-07-03
May 15–22
46%
May 23–29
36%
May 30–June 5
6%
June 6–12
3%
June 13–19
2%
June 20–26
1%
June 27–July 3
1%
After July 3
1%
May 15–22 46.0%
May 23–29 28.7%
May 30–June 5 6.2%
June 6–12 2.6%
$169,679 交易量
$169,679 交易量
2026-07-03
May 15–22
$65,200 交易量
46%
May 23–29
$8,345 交易量
36%
May 30–June 5
$9,137 交易量
6%
June 6–12
$9,059 交易量
3%
June 13–19
$8,855 交易量
2%
June 20–26
$10,436 交易量
1%
June 27–July 3
$5,200 交易量
1%
After July 3
$16,497 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jerome Powell’s second four-year term as Federal Reserve Chair concluded on May 15, prompting traders to assign the highest probability to a departure in the May 15–22 window at 50.9 percent, with the following week close behind at 42.5 percent. Senate confirmation of successor Kevin Warsh occurred in the final days before the term expired, yet the swearing-in remains pending, leaving Powell temporarily serving as chair pro tempore. This procedural gap, combined with Powell’s stated plan to remain on the Board of Governors for an undetermined period amid ongoing legal and institutional matters, has kept the two leading intervals tightly matched. Any acceleration or delay in Warsh’s formal assumption of the chair could quickly shift the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ET
交易量
$169,679结束日期
2026-07-03市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jerome Powell’s second four-year term as Federal Reserve Chair concluded on May 15, prompting traders to assign the highest probability to a departure in the May 15–22 window at 50.9 percent, with the following week close behind at 42.5 percent. Senate confirmation of successor Kevin Warsh occurred in the final days before the term expired, yet the swearing-in remains pending, leaving Powell temporarily serving as chair pro tempore. This procedural gap, combined with Powell’s stated plan to remain on the Board of Governors for an undetermined period amid ongoing legal and institutional matters, has kept the two leading intervals tightly matched. Any acceleration or delay in Warsh’s formal assumption of the chair could quickly shift the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$169,679结束日期
2026-07-03市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Jerome Powell’s second four-year term as Federal Reserve Chair concluded on May 15, prompting traders to assign the highest probability to a departure in the May 15–22 window at 50.9 percent, with the following week close behind at 42.5 percent. Senate confirmation of successor Kevin Warsh occurred in the final days before the term expired, yet the swearing-in remains pending, leaving Powell temporarily serving as chair pro tempore. This procedural gap, combined with Powell’s stated plan to remain on the Board of Governors for an undetermined period amid ongoing legal and institutional matters, has kept the two leading intervals tightly matched. Any acceleration or delay in Warsh’s formal assumption of the chair could quickly shift the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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