North Korea's formal adoption of a "two hostile states" policy, reinforced through March 2026 constitutional amendments that eliminated unification references and designated South Korea the primary adversary, underpins trader consensus against invasion before 2027. Pyongyang has prioritized irreversible nuclear capabilities and conventional modernization drawing from Ukraine conflict lessons, while avoiding large-scale mobilization or border escalations that historically precede attacks. South Korea's advanced defenses, combined with U.S. alliance commitments and regional deterrence dynamics, further raise the costs of any offensive. Realistic shifts could stem from major U.S. force redeployments amid simultaneous contingencies elsewhere, though South Korean capabilities and North Korea's risk calculations make such an outcome unlikely within the timeframe.