Jay Feely holds a commanding lead in the July 21, 2026, Republican primary for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, an open seat after incumbent David Schweikert entered the gubernatorial race. Traders price Feely at 77.5% largely because of President Trump’s endorsement and Feely’s substantial fundraising edge, exceeding $1.7 million. Joseph Chaplik, a state representative who resigned to run, sits at 19.6% amid early polls showing him competitive or ahead, but faces challenges from limited campaign funds and recent attacks over remarks involving Feely’s Haitian relatives. Negative exchanges between the top two candidates and questions about turnout have kept secondary contenders, including John Trobough, at single-digit odds or lower. The race remains subject to shifts from late endorsements or additional polling before primary day.