Forecast model consensus from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance, alongside real-time observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, positions the May 15 overnight low at 20°C with 89% market-implied probability, driven by strengthening southerly flow advection from the East China Sea that curbs nocturnal radiative cooling. Current METAR reports confirm early morning temperatures holding steady near 20°C amid mostly cloudy skies, high humidity around 100%, and light winds, consistent with urban heat island effects elevating Shanghai's minima 1-2°C above rural baselines. Recent 24-hour forecast refinements shifted odds from 19°C contention, reflecting stable pre-monsoon patterns where mid-May lows typically cluster 17-21°C. Hourly data releases through dawn will finalize the official minimum per station criteria, with slim chances for a 1°C deviation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
20°C 87%
19°C 13%
18°C 8%
17°C <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 may 2026
14°C o menos
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
8%
19°C
13%
20°C
87%
20°C 87%
19°C 13%
18°C 8%
17°C <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 may 2026
14°C o menos
$951 Vol.
1%
15°C
$879 Vol.
1%
16°C
$810 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$434 Vol.
1%
18°C
$498 Vol.
8%
19°C
$333 Vol.
13%
20°C
$456 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast model consensus from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance, alongside real-time observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, positions the May 15 overnight low at 20°C with 89% market-implied probability, driven by strengthening southerly flow advection from the East China Sea that curbs nocturnal radiative cooling. Current METAR reports confirm early morning temperatures holding steady near 20°C amid mostly cloudy skies, high humidity around 100%, and light winds, consistent with urban heat island effects elevating Shanghai's minima 1-2°C above rural baselines. Recent 24-hour forecast refinements shifted odds from 19°C contention, reflecting stable pre-monsoon patterns where mid-May lows typically cluster 17-21°C. Hourly data releases through dawn will finalize the official minimum per station criteria, with slim chances for a 1°C deviation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volumen
$8,430Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast model consensus from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance, alongside real-time observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, positions the May 15 overnight low at 20°C with 89% market-implied probability, driven by strengthening southerly flow advection from the East China Sea that curbs nocturnal radiative cooling. Current METAR reports confirm early morning temperatures holding steady near 20°C amid mostly cloudy skies, high humidity around 100%, and light winds, consistent with urban heat island effects elevating Shanghai's minima 1-2°C above rural baselines. Recent 24-hour forecast refinements shifted odds from 19°C contention, reflecting stable pre-monsoon patterns where mid-May lows typically cluster 17-21°C. Hourly data releases through dawn will finalize the official minimum per station criteria, with slim chances for a 1°C deviation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$8,430Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast model consensus from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance, alongside real-time observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, positions the May 15 overnight low at 20°C with 89% market-implied probability, driven by strengthening southerly flow advection from the East China Sea that curbs nocturnal radiative cooling. Current METAR reports confirm early morning temperatures holding steady near 20°C amid mostly cloudy skies, high humidity around 100%, and light winds, consistent with urban heat island effects elevating Shanghai's minima 1-2°C above rural baselines. Recent 24-hour forecast refinements shifted odds from 19°C contention, reflecting stable pre-monsoon patterns where mid-May lows typically cluster 17-21°C. Hourly data releases through dawn will finalize the official minimum per station criteria, with slim chances for a 1°C deviation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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