Recent polling aggregates show the CAQ holding roughly 22-25% support under Premier Christine Fréchette, placing it behind the Parti Québécois but competitive in dozens of ridings amid a fragmented field that includes rebounding Liberals and rising Conservatives. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and Poliwave place the CAQ near 18-29 seats on average, yet with unusually wide ranges (often 1-38) driven by high incumbent retirements, a new 127-seat map, and vote-efficiency swings in closely contested francophone districts. The short campaign, ongoing leaders’ debates, and regional patterns—particularly CAQ strength in parts of the Montreal suburbs and Quebec City versus PQ gains elsewhere—keep outcomes clustered between the low-20s and low-30s. Trader pricing reflects this uncertainty, with modest shifts in turnout or late movement among undecided voters capable of moving the CAQ across the 25-seat threshold in either direction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado30+ 34%
20-24 29%
25-29 24%
15-19 10.2%
$18,750 Vol.
$18,750 Vol.
5 oct 2026
<5
2%
5-9
4%
10-14
5%
15-19
9%
20-24
35%
25-29
24%
30+
34%
30+ 34%
20-24 29%
25-29 24%
15-19 10.2%
$18,750 Vol.
$18,750 Vol.
5 oct 2026
<5
$950 Vol.
2%
5-9
$1,448 Vol.
4%
10-14
$3,424 Vol.
5%
15-19
$1,845 Vol.
9%
20-24
$3,476 Vol.
35%
25-29
$1,724 Vol.
24%
30+
$5,882 Vol.
34%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates show the CAQ holding roughly 22-25% support under Premier Christine Fréchette, placing it behind the Parti Québécois but competitive in dozens of ridings amid a fragmented field that includes rebounding Liberals and rising Conservatives. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and Poliwave place the CAQ near 18-29 seats on average, yet with unusually wide ranges (often 1-38) driven by high incumbent retirements, a new 127-seat map, and vote-efficiency swings in closely contested francophone districts. The short campaign, ongoing leaders’ debates, and regional patterns—particularly CAQ strength in parts of the Montreal suburbs and Quebec City versus PQ gains elsewhere—keep outcomes clustered between the low-20s and low-30s. Trader pricing reflects this uncertainty, with modest shifts in turnout or late movement among undecided voters capable of moving the CAQ across the 25-seat threshold in either direction.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercado abierto: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volumen
$18,750Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates show the CAQ holding roughly 22-25% support under Premier Christine Fréchette, placing it behind the Parti Québécois but competitive in dozens of ridings amid a fragmented field that includes rebounding Liberals and rising Conservatives. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and Poliwave place the CAQ near 18-29 seats on average, yet with unusually wide ranges (often 1-38) driven by high incumbent retirements, a new 127-seat map, and vote-efficiency swings in closely contested francophone districts. The short campaign, ongoing leaders’ debates, and regional patterns—particularly CAQ strength in parts of the Montreal suburbs and Quebec City versus PQ gains elsewhere—keep outcomes clustered between the low-20s and low-30s. Trader pricing reflects this uncertainty, with modest shifts in turnout or late movement among undecided voters capable of moving the CAQ across the 25-seat threshold in either direction.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volumen
$18,750Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling aggregates show the CAQ holding roughly 22-25% support under Premier Christine Fréchette, placing it behind the Parti Québécois but competitive in dozens of ridings amid a fragmented field that includes rebounding Liberals and rising Conservatives. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and Poliwave place the CAQ near 18-29 seats on average, yet with unusually wide ranges (often 1-38) driven by high incumbent retirements, a new 127-seat map, and vote-efficiency swings in closely contested francophone districts. The short campaign, ongoing leaders’ debates, and regional patterns—particularly CAQ strength in parts of the Montreal suburbs and Quebec City versus PQ gains elsewhere—keep outcomes clustered between the low-20s and low-30s. Trader pricing reflects this uncertainty, with modest shifts in turnout or late movement among undecided voters capable of moving the CAQ across the 25-seat threshold in either direction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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