**Ben Gvir’s explicit rejection of a joint slate with Smotrich has anchored trader expectations that Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism will run separately.** In late August 2026, Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly urged the two leaders to unite ahead of the October 27 election, warning that separate runs risked wasting right-wing votes below the 3.25% threshold and weakening the bloc’s coalition prospects. Ben Gvir immediately declared the decision “final and complete,” with no talks or meetings possible, citing internal polling that a merger would cost his party three to four seats from lower turnout among his core supporters. Smotrich signaled openness to unity but has pursued alternatives, including talks with Moshe Feiglin, while polls show Religious Zionism hovering near or below the threshold alone and Otzma Yehudit clearing it comfortably at 6–8 seats. The emergence of Ofer Winter’s new right-wing party further fragments the vote. With the candidate-list deadline approaching in early September and no movement toward agreement, traders view a joint list as improbable, producing the current 84.5% implied probability for “No.”