Google's Gemini models have secured the third position on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard with style control enabled as of late August 2026, driving the 100% market-implied probability. Sustained benchmark gains in reasoning, agentic tasks, and controlled evaluations—where style adjustments reduce bias toward verbose outputs—have solidified this ranking amid competition from labs like Meta and OpenAI. Recent DeepMind updates, including experimental workflows in Gemini 3 variants, reinforce trader consensus on Google's positioning. A last-minute model release or leaderboard shift from rivals could still alter the outcome before the August 31 resolution check.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 100.0%
Meta 3.2%
Anthropic <1%
Moonshot <1%
$68,051 Vol.
$68,051 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
No
Meta
No
Yes
Moonshot
No
OpenAI
No
Alibaba
No
SpaceXAI
No
Z.ai
No
Baidu
No
Xiaomi
No
DeepSeek
No
ByteDance
No
MiniMax
No
Thinky
No
Meituan
No
Mistral
No
Amazon
No
Nvidia
No
Tencent
No
StepFun
No
Microsoft
No
Google 100.0%
Meta 3.2%
Anthropic <1%
Moonshot <1%
$68,051 Vol.
$68,051 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$1,885 Vol.
No
Meta
$13,082 Vol.
No
$17,094 Vol.
Yes
Moonshot
$7,525 Vol.
No
OpenAI
$2,224 Vol.
No
Alibaba
$11,865 Vol.
No
SpaceXAI
$851 Vol.
No
Z.ai
$2,442 Vol.
No
Baidu
$1,157 Vol.
No
Xiaomi
$774 Vol.
No
DeepSeek
$1,109 Vol.
No
ByteDance
$887 Vol.
No
MiniMax
$474 Vol.
No
Thinky
$830 Vol.
No
Meituan
$1,415 Vol.
No
Mistral
$572 Vol.
No
Amazon
$589 Vol.
No
Nvidia
$557 Vol.
No
Tencent
$565 Vol.
No
StepFun
$527 Vol.
No
Microsoft
$1,629 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Gemini models have secured the third position on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard with style control enabled as of late August 2026, driving the 100% market-implied probability. Sustained benchmark gains in reasoning, agentic tasks, and controlled evaluations—where style adjustments reduce bias toward verbose outputs—have solidified this ranking amid competition from labs like Meta and OpenAI. Recent DeepMind updates, including experimental workflows in Gemini 3 variants, reinforce trader consensus on Google's positioning. A last-minute model release or leaderboard shift from rivals could still alter the outcome before the August 31 resolution check.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Volume
$68,051End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Gemini models have secured the third position on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard with style control enabled as of late August 2026, driving the 100% market-implied probability. Sustained benchmark gains in reasoning, agentic tasks, and controlled evaluations—where style adjustments reduce bias toward verbose outputs—have solidified this ranking amid competition from labs like Meta and OpenAI. Recent DeepMind updates, including experimental workflows in Gemini 3 variants, reinforce trader consensus on Google's positioning. A last-minute model release or leaderboard shift from rivals could still alter the outcome before the August 31 resolution check.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$68,051End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Google's Gemini models have secured the third position on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard with style control enabled as of late August 2026, driving the 100% market-implied probability. Sustained benchmark gains in reasoning, agentic tasks, and controlled evaluations—where style adjustments reduce bias toward verbose outputs—have solidified this ranking amid competition from labs like Meta and OpenAI. Recent DeepMind updates, including experimental workflows in Gemini 3 variants, reinforce trader consensus on Google's positioning. A last-minute model release or leaderboard shift from rivals could still alter the outcome before the August 31 resolution check.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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