Traders show strong consensus that Meta ranks as the third-best AI lab by end of September, reflected in its 89.4% implied probability amid a competitive landscape of large language model development. This positioning stems from consistent recent model releases and benchmark performance that have elevated Meta relative to peers. Multiple other labs listed at 50% each highlight ongoing uncertainty in mid-tier rankings, while lower odds for Google at 7.5% and OpenAI at 0.4% suggest market views that these hold the top spots. With resolution imminent, any final capability demonstrations or benchmark updates in the coming days represent key potential catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMeta 88.9%
Google 8%
Alibaba 1.9%
Moonshot 1.6%
$93,059 Vol.
$93,059 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
89%
8%
Alibaba
2%
Moonshot
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Baidu
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta 88.9%
Google 8%
Alibaba 1.9%
Moonshot 1.6%
$93,059 Vol.
$93,059 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
$12,698 Vol.
89%
$40,693 Vol.
8%
Alibaba
$9,480 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$3,158 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$2,307 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$1,997 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$5,892 Vol.
<1%
Anthropic
$2,055 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$2,441 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,365 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,209 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$997 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$441 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,018 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,006 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$981 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$669 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$970 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,092 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$421 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,170 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders show strong consensus that Meta ranks as the third-best AI lab by end of September, reflected in its 89.4% implied probability amid a competitive landscape of large language model development. This positioning stems from consistent recent model releases and benchmark performance that have elevated Meta relative to peers. Multiple other labs listed at 50% each highlight ongoing uncertainty in mid-tier rankings, while lower odds for Google at 7.5% and OpenAI at 0.4% suggest market views that these hold the top spots. With resolution imminent, any final capability demonstrations or benchmark updates in the coming days represent key potential catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$93,059End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders show strong consensus that Meta ranks as the third-best AI lab by end of September, reflected in its 89.4% implied probability amid a competitive landscape of large language model development. This positioning stems from consistent recent model releases and benchmark performance that have elevated Meta relative to peers. Multiple other labs listed at 50% each highlight ongoing uncertainty in mid-tier rankings, while lower odds for Google at 7.5% and OpenAI at 0.4% suggest market views that these hold the top spots. With resolution imminent, any final capability demonstrations or benchmark updates in the coming days represent key potential catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$93,059End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders show strong consensus that Meta ranks as the third-best AI lab by end of September, reflected in its 89.4% implied probability amid a competitive landscape of large language model development. This positioning stems from consistent recent model releases and benchmark performance that have elevated Meta relative to peers. Multiple other labs listed at 50% each highlight ongoing uncertainty in mid-tier rankings, while lower odds for Google at 7.5% and OpenAI at 0.4% suggest market views that these hold the top spots. With resolution imminent, any final capability demonstrations or benchmark updates in the coming days represent key potential catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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