The Bank of Korea’s unanimous April hold at the 2.50% base rate, driven by Middle East geopolitical risks and balanced growth-inflation trade-offs, underpins the 97.6% market-implied probability of no change at the May 28 meeting. Policymakers continue to assess the impact of higher oil prices on the April CPI reading of 2.6% year-over-year, which exceeds the 2% target yet aligns with prior projections, while first-quarter GDP growth remains supported near 1.7% by semiconductor exports. Recent hawkish comments from Deputy Governor Ryoo Sang-dai signaling consideration of future rate hikes have not shifted trader consensus, given the institution’s data-dependent stance and stable financial conditions. A hotter-than-expected May CPI release or sharper Korean won depreciation could modestly elevate the slim probabilities of a hike before the next policy meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of Korea decision in May?
No Change 97.6%
Increase 2.2%
Decrease <1%
$102,956 Vol.
$102,956 Vol.
Decrease
<1%
No Change
98%
Increase
2%
No Change 97.6%
Increase 2.2%
Decrease <1%
$102,956 Vol.
$102,956 Vol.
Decrease
<1%
No Change
98%
Increase
2%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Korea after its May 28, 2026 policy-setting meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Korea meeting schedule: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Korea's policy statement for their May 28, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the base rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Feb 26, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Korea after its May 28, 2026 policy-setting meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Korea meeting schedule: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Korea's policy statement for their May 28, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the base rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Korea’s unanimous April hold at the 2.50% base rate, driven by Middle East geopolitical risks and balanced growth-inflation trade-offs, underpins the 97.6% market-implied probability of no change at the May 28 meeting. Policymakers continue to assess the impact of higher oil prices on the April CPI reading of 2.6% year-over-year, which exceeds the 2% target yet aligns with prior projections, while first-quarter GDP growth remains supported near 1.7% by semiconductor exports. Recent hawkish comments from Deputy Governor Ryoo Sang-dai signaling consideration of future rate hikes have not shifted trader consensus, given the institution’s data-dependent stance and stable financial conditions. A hotter-than-expected May CPI release or sharper Korean won depreciation could modestly elevate the slim probabilities of a hike before the next policy meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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