The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%—a unanimous consensus among traders reflected in Polymarket's 100% implied probability for no change—stems from elevated inflation pressures, with March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year amid a 10.9% energy surge driven by Middle East tensions, offsetting modest labor market softening evidenced by 4.3% unemployment and low jobless claims near 219,000. Solid economic expansion further supported holding steady, despite internal dissent including one vote for a 25 bps cut and three opposing an easing bias. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and the next FOMC meeting could signal shifts if data deviates sharply.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%—a unanimous consensus among traders reflected in Polymarket's 100% implied probability for no change—stems from elevated inflation pressures, with March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year amid a 10.9% energy surge driven by Middle East tensions, offsetting modest labor market softening evidenced by 4.3% unemployment and low jobless claims near 219,000. Solid economic expansion further supported holding steady, despite internal dissent including one vote for a 25 bps cut and three opposing an easing bias. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and the next FOMC meeting could signal shifts if data deviates sharply.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 28 2026
Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled; market fully
The final event is the FOMC meeting itself, where the market expects the Fed to hold rates steady, resolving the market question.
Apr 22 2026
JPMorgan Global Research and other analysts forecast the Fed will remain on hold at the April 28-29 meeting amid inflation risks and labor market strength
No change rises to 100%1%
Analyst consensus and market positioning ahead of the April meeting solidified the expectation of no rate change.
Mar 18 2026
Fed holds rates steady, projects higher inflation and rules out hikes through year‑end – In the March 2026 statement the Fed kept the policy range unchanged and “no policymakers
25+ bps increase dips to 0%3%
Fed holds rates steady, projects higher inflation and rules out hikes through year‑end – In the March 2026 statement the Fed kept the policy range unchanged and “no policymakers saw rates needing to move higher by the end of this year,” effectively eliminating the 25‑bp hike scenario. This pushed the outcome’s
Mar 18 2026
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in March meeting, projecting higher inflation and steady unemployment, signaling a single rate cut later in the year but not imminently
No change jumps to 96%10%
The March FOMC statement confirmed a hold, significantly boosting the "No change" outcome.
Mar 12 2026
Fed officials emphasize data dependency and caution amid resilient economic activity and inflation near target, leading markets to further lower expectations for a 50+ bps cut in
50+ bps decrease dips to 0%2%
Fed officials emphasize data dependency and caution amid resilient economic activity and inflation near target, leading markets to further lower expectations for a 50+ bps cut in April
Feb 14 2026
Market expectations for a December rate cut diminish further as Fed officials express doubts, and economic data shows steady but cautious growth
No change jumps to 86%11%
The fading probability of cuts and steady economic indicators pushed the "No change"
Jan 16 2026
January CPI data reveals softer core inflation and mixed economic signals;
50+ bps decrease dips to 2%1%
Fed expected to pause rate cuts due to tariff-related inflation pressures and modest labor market improvements, reducing odds of large cuts
Jan 14 2026
Fed officials, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins, advocate holding rates steady due to persistent inflation, reinforcing expectations of no change in upcoming meetings
No change jumps to 69%6%
Public remarks from Fed officials supporting a pause strengthened market conviction for no rate change.
Dec 11 2025
Fed signals pause on rate cuts after three consecutive reductions, emphasizing the need for clearer economic data and highlighting internal policy divisions
No change jumps to 61%14%
The Fed's communication about pausing cuts amid data gaps and leadership changes increased confidence in a hold scenario.
Dec 10 2025
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points but signals a likely pause on further cuts as inflation remains elevated and economic data is unclear
No change plunges to 47%17%
Despite the cut, the Fed's cautious tone and data uncertainty led to a temporary drop in the "No change"
Dec 10 2025
Fed cuts rates to 3.5‑3.75% and signals pause on further easing – The FOMC’s December meeting lowered the target range by 25 bps and, per Reuters, “signaled it would likely pause
25+ bps increase drops to 6%10%
Fed cuts rates to 3.5‑3.75% and signals pause on further easing – The FOMC’s December meeting lowered the target range by 25 bps and, per Reuters, “signaled it would likely pause further reductions”. The cut removed the need for a near‑term hike, driving the
Nov 21 2025
New York Fed President John Williams signals potential for near-term rate cut, raising market expectations for December easing amid slightly cooler inflation data and resilient
50+ bps decrease drops to 8%9%
New York Fed President John Williams signals potential for near-term rate cut, raising market expectations for December easing amid slightly cooler inflation data and resilient consumer spending
Nov 20 2025
FOMC minutes reveal a divided committee with a growing consensus to keep rates steady at 3.75%-4.00%, frustrating White House calls for deeper cuts
No change jumps to 64%6%
The minutes indicated a shift toward holding rates steady, boosting the "No change" outcome probability.
Nov 18 2025
Fed officials remain divided on December rate decision amid inflation concerns and data disruptions, with some governors pushing for cuts and others advocating caution
No change dips to 58%3%
The division within the Fed created uncertainty, causing a dip in the "No change"
Nov 13 2025
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third consecutive time, reducing the benchmark rate to 3.75%-4.00%, but signals uncertainty about further cuts amid sticky inflation and divided Fed views
No change rises to 61%3%
This event marked the start of market reassessment of the likelihood of further cuts, tempering earlier high expectations for a December cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%—a unanimous consensus among traders reflected in Polymarket's 100% implied probability for no change—stems from elevated inflation pressures, with March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year amid a 10.9% energy surge driven by Middle East tensions, offsetting modest labor market softening evidenced by 4.3% unemployment and low jobless claims near 219,000. Solid economic expansion further supported holding steady, despite internal dissent including one vote for a 25 bps cut and three opposing an easing bias. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and the next FOMC meeting could signal shifts if data deviates sharply.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%—a unanimous consensus among traders reflected in Polymarket's 100% implied probability for no change—stems from elevated inflation pressures, with March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year amid a 10.9% energy surge driven by Middle East tensions, offsetting modest labor market softening evidenced by 4.3% unemployment and low jobless claims near 219,000. Solid economic expansion further supported holding steady, despite internal dissent including one vote for a 25 bps cut and three opposing an easing bias. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and the next FOMC meeting could signal shifts if data deviates sharply.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 28 2026
Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled; market fully
The final event is the FOMC meeting itself, where the market expects the Fed to hold rates steady, resolving the market question.
Apr 22 2026
JPMorgan Global Research and other analysts forecast the Fed will remain on hold at the April 28-29 meeting amid inflation risks and labor market strength
No change rises to 100%1%
Analyst consensus and market positioning ahead of the April meeting solidified the expectation of no rate change.
Mar 18 2026
Fed holds rates steady, projects higher inflation and rules out hikes through year‑end – In the March 2026 statement the Fed kept the policy range unchanged and “no policymakers
25+ bps increase dips to 0%3%
Fed holds rates steady, projects higher inflation and rules out hikes through year‑end – In the March 2026 statement the Fed kept the policy range unchanged and “no policymakers saw rates needing to move higher by the end of this year,” effectively eliminating the 25‑bp hike scenario. This pushed the outcome’s
Mar 18 2026
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in March meeting, projecting higher inflation and steady unemployment, signaling a single rate cut later in the year but not imminently
No change jumps to 96%10%
The March FOMC statement confirmed a hold, significantly boosting the "No change" outcome.
Mar 12 2026
Fed officials emphasize data dependency and caution amid resilient economic activity and inflation near target, leading markets to further lower expectations for a 50+ bps cut in
50+ bps decrease dips to 0%2%
Fed officials emphasize data dependency and caution amid resilient economic activity and inflation near target, leading markets to further lower expectations for a 50+ bps cut in April
Feb 14 2026
Market expectations for a December rate cut diminish further as Fed officials express doubts, and economic data shows steady but cautious growth
No change jumps to 86%11%
The fading probability of cuts and steady economic indicators pushed the "No change"
Jan 16 2026
January CPI data reveals softer core inflation and mixed economic signals;
50+ bps decrease dips to 2%1%
Fed expected to pause rate cuts due to tariff-related inflation pressures and modest labor market improvements, reducing odds of large cuts
Jan 14 2026
Fed officials, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins, advocate holding rates steady due to persistent inflation, reinforcing expectations of no change in upcoming meetings
No change jumps to 69%6%
Public remarks from Fed officials supporting a pause strengthened market conviction for no rate change.
Dec 11 2025
Fed signals pause on rate cuts after three consecutive reductions, emphasizing the need for clearer economic data and highlighting internal policy divisions
No change jumps to 61%14%
The Fed's communication about pausing cuts amid data gaps and leadership changes increased confidence in a hold scenario.
Dec 10 2025
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points but signals a likely pause on further cuts as inflation remains elevated and economic data is unclear
No change plunges to 47%17%
Despite the cut, the Fed's cautious tone and data uncertainty led to a temporary drop in the "No change"
Dec 10 2025
Fed cuts rates to 3.5‑3.75% and signals pause on further easing – The FOMC’s December meeting lowered the target range by 25 bps and, per Reuters, “signaled it would likely pause
25+ bps increase drops to 6%10%
Fed cuts rates to 3.5‑3.75% and signals pause on further easing – The FOMC’s December meeting lowered the target range by 25 bps and, per Reuters, “signaled it would likely pause further reductions”. The cut removed the need for a near‑term hike, driving the
Nov 21 2025
New York Fed President John Williams signals potential for near-term rate cut, raising market expectations for December easing amid slightly cooler inflation data and resilient
50+ bps decrease drops to 8%9%
New York Fed President John Williams signals potential for near-term rate cut, raising market expectations for December easing amid slightly cooler inflation data and resilient consumer spending
Nov 20 2025
FOMC minutes reveal a divided committee with a growing consensus to keep rates steady at 3.75%-4.00%, frustrating White House calls for deeper cuts
No change jumps to 64%6%
The minutes indicated a shift toward holding rates steady, boosting the "No change" outcome probability.
Nov 18 2025
Fed officials remain divided on December rate decision amid inflation concerns and data disruptions, with some governors pushing for cuts and others advocating caution
No change dips to 58%3%
The division within the Fed created uncertainty, causing a dip in the "No change"
Nov 13 2025
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third consecutive time, reducing the benchmark rate to 3.75%-4.00%, but signals uncertainty about further cuts amid sticky inflation and divided Fed views
No change rises to 61%3%
This event marked the start of market reassessment of the likelihood of further cuts, tempering earlier high expectations for a December cut.
"Fed decision in April?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No change" at 100%, followed by "50+ bps decrease" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Fed decision in April?" has generated $284.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Fed decision in April?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Fed decision in April?" is "No change" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "50+ bps decrease" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Fed decision in April?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
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Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $284.2 million traded on “Fed decision in April?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
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On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "No change" in the "Fed decision in April?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "No change" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
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