Skip to main content
icon for FL-19 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-19 Republican Primary Winner

icon for FL-19 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-19 Republican Primary Winner

Catalina Lauf 48%

Jim Schwartzel 40.1%

Jim Oberweis 13.0%

Madison Cawthorn 1.7%

Polymarket

$56,711 Vol.

Catalina Lauf 48%

Jim Schwartzel 40.1%

Jim Oberweis 13.0%

Madison Cawthorn 1.7%

Polymarket

$56,711 Vol.

icon for Catalina Lauf

Catalina Lauf

$25,906 Vol.

48%

icon for Jim Schwartzel

Jim Schwartzel

$13,245 Vol.

40%

icon for Jim Oberweis

Jim Oberweis

$7,967 Vol.

13%

icon for Madison Cawthorn

Madison Cawthorn

$3,656 Vol.

2%

icon for Bob Rommel

Bob Rommel

$3,535 Vol.

1%

icon for Spencer Roach

Spencer Roach

$2,403 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Recent polling from Victory Insights and other surveys shows a tight contest between Catalina Lauf and Jim Schwartzel in the August 18 Republican primary for the open FL-19 seat, with both candidates in the high teens amid over 30% undecided voters and Jim Oberweis in the low double digits. Lauf has gained traction from fresh endorsements by sitting Florida U.S. Reps. Kat Cammack and Greg Steube, plus Turning Point Action, complementing her national fundraising and digital outreach. Schwartzel maintains strength through local name recognition and radio advertising as a Southwest Florida businessman. Prediction markets reflect this uncertainty and the potential for late shifts from remaining undecided voters or final ad waves in a crowded field of 10 candidates.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$56,711
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Recent polling from Victory Insights and other surveys shows a tight contest between Catalina Lauf and Jim Schwartzel in the August 18 Republican primary for the open FL-19 seat, with both candidates in the high teens amid over 30% undecided voters and Jim Oberweis in the low double digits. Lauf has gained traction from fresh endorsements by sitting Florida U.S. Reps. Kat Cammack and Greg Steube, plus Turning Point Action, complementing her national fundraising and digital outreach. Schwartzel maintains strength through local name recognition and radio advertising as a Southwest Florida businessman. Prediction markets reflect this uncertainty and the potential for late shifts from remaining undecided voters or final ad waves in a crowded field of 10 candidates.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$56,711
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

icon for Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?

Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?

45%
icon for Will Scott Singer be the FL-25 Republican nominee?

Will Scott Singer be the FL-25 Republican nominee?

77%
icon for Will Ryan Elijah be the FL-07 Republican nominee?

Will Ryan Elijah be the FL-07 Republican nominee?

50%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Catalina Lauf" at 48%, followed by "Jim Schwartzel" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 48¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $56.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" is "Catalina Lauf" at 48%, meaning the market assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jim Schwartzel" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.