The overwhelming market-implied odds of 96.8% against a Freddie Mac IPO closing by June 30, 2026 reflect the tight remaining timeline and absence of finalized legislative or administrative steps needed to exit conservatorship and complete an offering. Recent commentary from FHFA Director William Pulte and investor Michael Burry points to decision-making still underway with realistic completion no earlier than late 2026 or 2027, given capital-ratio requirements and regulatory pathways. Trader consensus prices in these structural delays while noting that an expedited presidential directive or accelerated FHFA rulemaking in the next several weeks could still shift probabilities if concrete timelines emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO by June 30, 2026 96.8%
150–200B 1.5%
300B+ 1.1%
<150B <1%
$201,262 Vol.
$201,262 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<150B
<1%
150–200B
2%
200–250B
<1%
250–300B
<1%
300B+
1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
97%
No IPO by June 30, 2026 96.8%
150–200B 1.5%
300B+ 1.1%
<150B <1%
$201,262 Vol.
$201,262 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<150B
$81,902 Vol.
<1%
150–200B
$32,469 Vol.
2%
200–250B
$20,034 Vol.
<1%
250–300B
$6,727 Vol.
<1%
300B+
$12,169 Vol.
1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
$47,961 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.The overwhelming market-implied odds of 96.8% against a Freddie Mac IPO closing by June 30, 2026 reflect the tight remaining timeline and absence of finalized legislative or administrative steps needed to exit conservatorship and complete an offering. Recent commentary from FHFA Director William Pulte and investor Michael Burry points to decision-making still underway with realistic completion no earlier than late 2026 or 2027, given capital-ratio requirements and regulatory pathways. Trader consensus prices in these structural delays while noting that an expedited presidential directive or accelerated FHFA rulemaking in the next several weeks could still shift probabilities if concrete timelines emerge.
This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
Volume
$201,262End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.The overwhelming market-implied odds of 96.8% against a Freddie Mac IPO closing by June 30, 2026 reflect the tight remaining timeline and absence of finalized legislative or administrative steps needed to exit conservatorship and complete an offering. Recent commentary from FHFA Director William Pulte and investor Michael Burry points to decision-making still underway with realistic completion no earlier than late 2026 or 2027, given capital-ratio requirements and regulatory pathways. Trader consensus prices in these structural delays while noting that an expedited presidential directive or accelerated FHFA rulemaking in the next several weeks could still shift probabilities if concrete timelines emerge.
This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$201,262End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The overwhelming market-implied odds of 96.8% against a Freddie Mac IPO closing by June 30, 2026 reflect the tight remaining timeline and absence of finalized legislative or administrative steps needed to exit conservatorship and complete an offering. Recent commentary from FHFA Director William Pulte and investor Michael Burry points to decision-making still underway with realistic completion no earlier than late 2026 or 2027, given capital-ratio requirements and regulatory pathways. Trader consensus prices in these structural delays while noting that an expedited presidential directive or accelerated FHFA rulemaking in the next several weeks could still shift probabilities if concrete timelines emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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