Meteorological consensus from the China Meteorological Administration places Chengdu under the Western Pacific Subtropical High on August 14, driving clear to partly cloudy skies, light winds, and strong solar heating that supports a daily maximum near 37°C. Ensemble model runs align on this outcome, consistent with typical mid-August conditions in the Sichuan Basin where high pressure suppresses convection and maintains elevated surface temperatures. The market's 100% implied probability for 37°C reflects this strong scientific agreement backed by real-time observations. Minor deviations remain possible if localized cloud buildup or measurement timing at official stations shifts the recorded peak slightly lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 14?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 14?
37°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$75,534 Vol.
$75,534 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
30°C or below
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
Yes
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C or higher
No
37°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$75,534 Vol.
$75,534 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
30°C or below
$385 Vol.
No
31°C
$1,481 Vol.
No
32°C
$1,102 Vol.
No
33°C
$1,061 Vol.
No
34°C
$2,877 Vol.
No
35°C
$5,699 Vol.
No
36°C
$18,353 Vol.
No
37°C
$16,938 Vol.
Yes
38°C
$13,892 Vol.
No
39°C
$6,269 Vol.
No
40°C or higher
$7,476 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Meteorological consensus from the China Meteorological Administration places Chengdu under the Western Pacific Subtropical High on August 14, driving clear to partly cloudy skies, light winds, and strong solar heating that supports a daily maximum near 37°C. Ensemble model runs align on this outcome, consistent with typical mid-August conditions in the Sichuan Basin where high pressure suppresses convection and maintains elevated surface temperatures. The market's 100% implied probability for 37°C reflects this strong scientific agreement backed by real-time observations. Minor deviations remain possible if localized cloud buildup or measurement timing at official stations shifts the recorded peak slightly lower.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$75,534End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Meteorological consensus from the China Meteorological Administration places Chengdu under the Western Pacific Subtropical High on August 14, driving clear to partly cloudy skies, light winds, and strong solar heating that supports a daily maximum near 37°C. Ensemble model runs align on this outcome, consistent with typical mid-August conditions in the Sichuan Basin where high pressure suppresses convection and maintains elevated surface temperatures. The market's 100% implied probability for 37°C reflects this strong scientific agreement backed by real-time observations. Minor deviations remain possible if localized cloud buildup or measurement timing at official stations shifts the recorded peak slightly lower.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$75,534End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Meteorological consensus from the China Meteorological Administration places Chengdu under the Western Pacific Subtropical High on August 14, driving clear to partly cloudy skies, light winds, and strong solar heating that supports a daily maximum near 37°C. Ensemble model runs align on this outcome, consistent with typical mid-August conditions in the Sichuan Basin where high pressure suppresses convection and maintains elevated surface temperatures. The market's 100% implied probability for 37°C reflects this strong scientific agreement backed by real-time observations. Minor deviations remain possible if localized cloud buildup or measurement timing at official stations shifts the recorded peak slightly lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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