Karachi's monsoon-season climatology and official forecasts anchored trader consensus around a 32°C daily maximum for August 15, 2026. National meteorological data and model runs showed typical August highs near the long-term 32°C average, with sea-breeze circulation and cloud cover limiting daytime heating under active monsoon conditions. This placed the outcome well within the observed 31–34°C envelope, producing the 100% market-implied probability. A sudden breakdown in the sea breeze or an unforecasted heat surge could have pushed readings higher, but no such shift appeared in the final observational record or agency updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Karachi on August 15?
Highest temperature in Karachi on August 15?
32°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$30,495 Vol.
$30,495 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$30,495 Vol.
$30,495 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
$235 Vol.
No
28°C
$448 Vol.
No
29°C
$950 Vol.
No
30°C
$4,312 Vol.
No
31°C
$5,253 Vol.
No
32°C
$9,129 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$5,854 Vol.
No
34°C
$2,447 Vol.
No
35°C
$753 Vol.
No
36°C
$915 Vol.
No
37°C or higher
$199 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Karachi's monsoon-season climatology and official forecasts anchored trader consensus around a 32°C daily maximum for August 15, 2026. National meteorological data and model runs showed typical August highs near the long-term 32°C average, with sea-breeze circulation and cloud cover limiting daytime heating under active monsoon conditions. This placed the outcome well within the observed 31–34°C envelope, producing the 100% market-implied probability. A sudden breakdown in the sea breeze or an unforecasted heat surge could have pushed readings higher, but no such shift appeared in the final observational record or agency updates.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$30,495End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Karachi's monsoon-season climatology and official forecasts anchored trader consensus around a 32°C daily maximum for August 15, 2026. National meteorological data and model runs showed typical August highs near the long-term 32°C average, with sea-breeze circulation and cloud cover limiting daytime heating under active monsoon conditions. This placed the outcome well within the observed 31–34°C envelope, producing the 100% market-implied probability. A sudden breakdown in the sea breeze or an unforecasted heat surge could have pushed readings higher, but no such shift appeared in the final observational record or agency updates.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30,495End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Karachi's monsoon-season climatology and official forecasts anchored trader consensus around a 32°C daily maximum for August 15, 2026. National meteorological data and model runs showed typical August highs near the long-term 32°C average, with sea-breeze circulation and cloud cover limiting daytime heating under active monsoon conditions. This placed the outcome well within the observed 31–34°C envelope, producing the 100% market-implied probability. A sudden breakdown in the sea breeze or an unforecasted heat surge could have pushed readings higher, but no such shift appeared in the final observational record or agency updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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