Strong high-pressure dominance over northern Italy, combined with typical Po Valley subsidence and Milan’s urban heat island, has anchored latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance for a daytime maximum of 31–32 °C on 17 August 2026. Official forecasts from Meteo.it and the Met Office converge on 31–33 °C under mostly sunny skies, with only modest afternoon instability and light southerly flow limiting further warming. The 85 % market-implied probability on 31 °C reflects this tight model consensus and the low likelihood of either significant cloud cover or stronger advection that could push readings to 33 °C or above. Any late-day shower development remains the main downside risk priced into the slim 14 % chance for 32 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on August 17?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 17?
31°C 85.0%
32°C 14.9%
33°C <1%
27°C or below <1%
$144,430 Vol.
$144,430 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
85%
32°C
15%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
31°C 85.0%
32°C 14.9%
33°C <1%
27°C or below <1%
$144,430 Vol.
$144,430 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
27°C or below
$37,140 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$21,320 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$25,714 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$21,897 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$18,598 Vol.
85%
32°C
$14,022 Vol.
15%
33°C
$7,596 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$3,196 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$1,407 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$488 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$702 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong high-pressure dominance over northern Italy, combined with typical Po Valley subsidence and Milan’s urban heat island, has anchored latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance for a daytime maximum of 31–32 °C on 17 August 2026. Official forecasts from Meteo.it and the Met Office converge on 31–33 °C under mostly sunny skies, with only modest afternoon instability and light southerly flow limiting further warming. The 85 % market-implied probability on 31 °C reflects this tight model consensus and the low likelihood of either significant cloud cover or stronger advection that could push readings to 33 °C or above. Any late-day shower development remains the main downside risk priced into the slim 14 % chance for 32 °C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Volume
$144,430End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong high-pressure dominance over northern Italy, combined with typical Po Valley subsidence and Milan’s urban heat island, has anchored latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance for a daytime maximum of 31–32 °C on 17 August 2026. Official forecasts from Meteo.it and the Met Office converge on 31–33 °C under mostly sunny skies, with only modest afternoon instability and light southerly flow limiting further warming. The 85 % market-implied probability on 31 °C reflects this tight model consensus and the low likelihood of either significant cloud cover or stronger advection that could push readings to 33 °C or above. Any late-day shower development remains the main downside risk priced into the slim 14 % chance for 32 °C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$144,430End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong high-pressure dominance over northern Italy, combined with typical Po Valley subsidence and Milan’s urban heat island, has anchored latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance for a daytime maximum of 31–32 °C on 17 August 2026. Official forecasts from Meteo.it and the Met Office converge on 31–33 °C under mostly sunny skies, with only modest afternoon instability and light southerly flow limiting further warming. The 85 % market-implied probability on 31 °C reflects this tight model consensus and the low likelihood of either significant cloud cover or stronger advection that could push readings to 33 °C or above. Any late-day shower development remains the main downside risk priced into the slim 14 % chance for 32 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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