Coastal moderation from the Yellow Sea, combined with expected cloud cover, light rain, and northeasterly flow on August 15, anchors market-implied odds heavily toward a 31°C high for Qingdao. Short-term numerical weather prediction guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and similar models consistently projects daytime maxima near 29–31°C, aligning with historical August averages around 30°C and recent observations under comparable regimes. Maritime air masses and boundary-layer mixing limit daytime heating, while precipitation timing adds modest variability. Updated official forecasts and final observational data remain the key near-term catalysts; drier or sunnier conditions than anticipated could realistically push readings to 32°C or higher, whereas stronger onshore breezes or heavier showers would favor a lower outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on August 15?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on August 15?
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$36,290 Vol.
$36,290 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$36,290 Vol.
$36,290 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
$1,190 Vol.
No
26°C
$3,615 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,659 Vol.
No
28°C
$5,136 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,145 Vol.
No
30°C
$2,778 Vol.
No
31°C
$4,707 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$3,652 Vol.
No
33°C
$2,698 Vol.
No
34°C
$6,197 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$513 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Coastal moderation from the Yellow Sea, combined with expected cloud cover, light rain, and northeasterly flow on August 15, anchors market-implied odds heavily toward a 31°C high for Qingdao. Short-term numerical weather prediction guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and similar models consistently projects daytime maxima near 29–31°C, aligning with historical August averages around 30°C and recent observations under comparable regimes. Maritime air masses and boundary-layer mixing limit daytime heating, while precipitation timing adds modest variability. Updated official forecasts and final observational data remain the key near-term catalysts; drier or sunnier conditions than anticipated could realistically push readings to 32°C or higher, whereas stronger onshore breezes or heavier showers would favor a lower outcome.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$36,290End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Coastal moderation from the Yellow Sea, combined with expected cloud cover, light rain, and northeasterly flow on August 15, anchors market-implied odds heavily toward a 31°C high for Qingdao. Short-term numerical weather prediction guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and similar models consistently projects daytime maxima near 29–31°C, aligning with historical August averages around 30°C and recent observations under comparable regimes. Maritime air masses and boundary-layer mixing limit daytime heating, while precipitation timing adds modest variability. Updated official forecasts and final observational data remain the key near-term catalysts; drier or sunnier conditions than anticipated could realistically push readings to 32°C or higher, whereas stronger onshore breezes or heavier showers would favor a lower outcome.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$36,290End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Coastal moderation from the Yellow Sea, combined with expected cloud cover, light rain, and northeasterly flow on August 15, anchors market-implied odds heavily toward a 31°C high for Qingdao. Short-term numerical weather prediction guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and similar models consistently projects daytime maxima near 29–31°C, aligning with historical August averages around 30°C and recent observations under comparable regimes. Maritime air masses and boundary-layer mixing limit daytime heating, while precipitation timing adds modest variability. Updated official forecasts and final observational data remain the key near-term catalysts; drier or sunnier conditions than anticipated could realistically push readings to 32°C or higher, whereas stronger onshore breezes or heavier showers would favor a lower outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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