Recent forecasts from global and regional models, including ECMWF and local Israeli sources, indicate a highest temperature near 29–31°C for Tel Aviv on September 24 under partly cloudy conditions with moderate northwest winds and low precipitation chances. These align with the market's strong emphasis on 30°C (59% implied probability) and 31°C (27%), reflecting typical late-September Mediterranean patterns where sea breezes limit extremes and daily highs average around 28–30°C. Earlier September warmth has eased into near-normal conditions without heatwave signals, keeping higher outcomes like 32°C+ at lower probabilities. Updated model runs and Israel Meteorological Service briefings over the next 48 hours will refine this consensus ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 24?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 24?
30°C 59%
31°C 38%
29°C 18%
32°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
27°C or below
4%
28°C
1%
29°C
18%
30°C
59%
31°C
28%
32°C
18%
33°C
16%
34°C
16%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
30°C 59%
31°C 38%
29°C 18%
32°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
27°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
28°C
$20 Vol.
1%
29°C
$0 Vol.
18%
30°C
$145 Vol.
59%
31°C
$67 Vol.
28%
32°C
$5 Vol.
18%
33°C
$0 Vol.
16%
34°C
$0 Vol.
16%
35°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global and regional models, including ECMWF and local Israeli sources, indicate a highest temperature near 29–31°C for Tel Aviv on September 24 under partly cloudy conditions with moderate northwest winds and low precipitation chances. These align with the market's strong emphasis on 30°C (59% implied probability) and 31°C (27%), reflecting typical late-September Mediterranean patterns where sea breezes limit extremes and daily highs average around 28–30°C. Earlier September warmth has eased into near-normal conditions without heatwave signals, keeping higher outcomes like 32°C+ at lower probabilities. Updated model runs and Israel Meteorological Service briefings over the next 48 hours will refine this consensus ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$282End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global and regional models, including ECMWF and local Israeli sources, indicate a highest temperature near 29–31°C for Tel Aviv on September 24 under partly cloudy conditions with moderate northwest winds and low precipitation chances. These align with the market's strong emphasis on 30°C (59% implied probability) and 31°C (27%), reflecting typical late-September Mediterranean patterns where sea breezes limit extremes and daily highs average around 28–30°C. Earlier September warmth has eased into near-normal conditions without heatwave signals, keeping higher outcomes like 32°C+ at lower probabilities. Updated model runs and Israel Meteorological Service briefings over the next 48 hours will refine this consensus ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$282End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from global and regional models, including ECMWF and local Israeli sources, indicate a highest temperature near 29–31°C for Tel Aviv on September 24 under partly cloudy conditions with moderate northwest winds and low precipitation chances. These align with the market's strong emphasis on 30°C (59% implied probability) and 31°C (27%), reflecting typical late-September Mediterranean patterns where sea breezes limit extremes and daily highs average around 28–30°C. Earlier September warmth has eased into near-normal conditions without heatwave signals, keeping higher outcomes like 32°C+ at lower probabilities. Updated model runs and Israel Meteorological Service briefings over the next 48 hours will refine this consensus ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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