Wellington’s winter climate features average July daily maxima near 12–13°C, with highs rarely exceeding 15°C or dropping below 10°C amid frequent southerly winds and frontal passages. Current numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international ensembles converge on a 12–14°C range for July 29, driven by a transient ridge delivering mostly fine conditions before increasing cloud and a possible weak front, with light northerly flow limiting daytime warming. The recent July 22 high of exactly 14°C illustrates how quickly model consensus can shift probabilities, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near- or below-average temperatures reinforces the modest upside risk. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 13°C and 14°C, reflecting tight forecast spreads and typical day-to-day variability in the capital’s exposed coastal setting two days before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on July 29?
Highest temperature in Wellington on July 29?
12°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$118,138 Vol.
$118,138 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$118,138 Vol.
$118,138 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
8°C or below
$462 Vol.
No
9°C
$1,462 Vol.
No
10°C
$2,265 Vol.
No
11°C
$13,271 Vol.
No
12°C
$30,764 Vol.
Yes
13°C
$20,564 Vol.
No
14°C
$24,675 Vol.
No
15°C
$10,515 Vol.
No
16°C
$9,952 Vol.
No
17°C
$2,746 Vol.
No
18°C or higher
$1,462 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington’s winter climate features average July daily maxima near 12–13°C, with highs rarely exceeding 15°C or dropping below 10°C amid frequent southerly winds and frontal passages. Current numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international ensembles converge on a 12–14°C range for July 29, driven by a transient ridge delivering mostly fine conditions before increasing cloud and a possible weak front, with light northerly flow limiting daytime warming. The recent July 22 high of exactly 14°C illustrates how quickly model consensus can shift probabilities, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near- or below-average temperatures reinforces the modest upside risk. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 13°C and 14°C, reflecting tight forecast spreads and typical day-to-day variability in the capital’s exposed coastal setting two days before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 27, 2026, 4:03 AM ET
Volume
$118,138End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 27, 2026, 4:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington’s winter climate features average July daily maxima near 12–13°C, with highs rarely exceeding 15°C or dropping below 10°C amid frequent southerly winds and frontal passages. Current numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international ensembles converge on a 12–14°C range for July 29, driven by a transient ridge delivering mostly fine conditions before increasing cloud and a possible weak front, with light northerly flow limiting daytime warming. The recent July 22 high of exactly 14°C illustrates how quickly model consensus can shift probabilities, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near- or below-average temperatures reinforces the modest upside risk. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 13°C and 14°C, reflecting tight forecast spreads and typical day-to-day variability in the capital’s exposed coastal setting two days before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$118,138End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 27, 2026, 4:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Wellington’s winter climate features average July daily maxima near 12–13°C, with highs rarely exceeding 15°C or dropping below 10°C amid frequent southerly winds and frontal passages. Current numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international ensembles converge on a 12–14°C range for July 29, driven by a transient ridge delivering mostly fine conditions before increasing cloud and a possible weak front, with light northerly flow limiting daytime warming. The recent July 22 high of exactly 14°C illustrates how quickly model consensus can shift probabilities, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near- or below-average temperatures reinforces the modest upside risk. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 13°C and 14°C, reflecting tight forecast spreads and typical day-to-day variability in the capital’s exposed coastal setting two days before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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