Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from May 11-17 at 58% implied probability, reflecting the USGS historical baseline of about 135 M6.0-6.9 events annually—or roughly 2.6 per week— with M6.5+ occurrences rarer at an expected rate near 0.5 weekly under Gutenberg-Richter scaling. As of May 13, no such quakes have struck during the period's first three days, per USGS real-time catalog, amid background global seismic levels without notable swarms, aftershock sequences, or tectonic stress indicators on major fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Uncertainties persist due to earthquakes' stochastic nature, but daily USGS feeds will track any shifts; Poisson-distributed odds suggest low risk of multiples absent precursors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
0 59%
1 28%
2 8%
3 1.9%
$18,496 Vol.
$18,496 Vol.
May 17, 2026
0
59%
1
28%
2
8%
3
2%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 59%
1 28%
2 8%
3 1.9%
$18,496 Vol.
$18,496 Vol.
May 17, 2026
0
$11,430 Vol.
59%
1
$541 Vol.
28%
2
$1,167 Vol.
8%
3
$575 Vol.
2%
4
$2,171 Vol.
<1%
5
$1,394 Vol.
<1%
>5
$1,217 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from May 11-17 at 58% implied probability, reflecting the USGS historical baseline of about 135 M6.0-6.9 events annually—or roughly 2.6 per week— with M6.5+ occurrences rarer at an expected rate near 0.5 weekly under Gutenberg-Richter scaling. As of May 13, no such quakes have struck during the period's first three days, per USGS real-time catalog, amid background global seismic levels without notable swarms, aftershock sequences, or tectonic stress indicators on major fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Uncertainties persist due to earthquakes' stochastic nature, but daily USGS feeds will track any shifts; Poisson-distributed odds suggest low risk of multiples absent precursors.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ET
Volume
$18,496End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from May 11-17 at 58% implied probability, reflecting the USGS historical baseline of about 135 M6.0-6.9 events annually—or roughly 2.6 per week— with M6.5+ occurrences rarer at an expected rate near 0.5 weekly under Gutenberg-Richter scaling. As of May 13, no such quakes have struck during the period's first three days, per USGS real-time catalog, amid background global seismic levels without notable swarms, aftershock sequences, or tectonic stress indicators on major fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Uncertainties persist due to earthquakes' stochastic nature, but daily USGS feeds will track any shifts; Poisson-distributed odds suggest low risk of multiples absent precursors.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$18,496End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from May 11-17 at 58% implied probability, reflecting the USGS historical baseline of about 135 M6.0-6.9 events annually—or roughly 2.6 per week— with M6.5+ occurrences rarer at an expected rate near 0.5 weekly under Gutenberg-Richter scaling. As of May 13, no such quakes have struck during the period's first three days, per USGS real-time catalog, amid background global seismic levels without notable swarms, aftershock sequences, or tectonic stress indicators on major fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Uncertainties persist due to earthquakes' stochastic nature, but daily USGS feeds will track any shifts; Poisson-distributed odds suggest low risk of multiples absent precursors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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