SpaceX’s established Falcon 9 cadence, with boosters routinely exceeding 15–17 flights and weekly Starlink missions now concentrated at Vandenberg, underpins the market-implied 78% probability for 140–159 total launches in 2026. Roughly 107–111 orbital attempts have occurred through mid-September, on pace with 2025’s 165 Falcon missions yet tempered by the deliberate shift of Florida Starlink flights to Starship and engineering focus on the new vehicle. Upcoming milestones include Starship Flight 14’s first orbital attempt, targeted for late September with 26 next-generation satellites, alongside continued national-security and commercial Falcon payloads. Trader consensus reflects realistic constraints from range scheduling, booster turnaround limits, and the transition timeline, while acknowledging upside from sustained reuse rates and potential Starship ramp-up in the final quarter.