**James Comey faces a pending federal indictment in the Eastern District of North Carolina on two counts stemming from a May 2025 Instagram post depicting seashells arranged as “86 47,” which prosecutors allege constituted a true threat against President Trump under 18 U.S.C. §§ 871(a) and 875(c).** The case, filed April 28, 2026, follows dismissal of an earlier Virginia indictment on procedural grounds. Comey’s defense has filed motions to dismiss arguing lack of a true threat, protected speech, and selective or vindictive prosecution, with the DOJ opposing those filings as of mid-August. Arraignment is set for September 30 and trial for October 21. The 97.5% trader consensus on “No” reflects the early procedural stage, high evidentiary and constitutional hurdles for conviction on threat charges, the time typically required for trial, sentencing, and appeals, and the low likelihood of resolution and punishment occurring before December 31, 2026. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include denial of dismissal motions, a swift guilty plea or verdict with immediate sentencing, or other late-breaking legal developments within the calendar year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$157,949 Vol.
$157,949 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
3% chance
$157,949 Vol.
$157,949 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former FBI director James Comey is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Comey is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against James Comey for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**James Comey faces a pending federal indictment in the Eastern District of North Carolina on two counts stemming from a May 2025 Instagram post depicting seashells arranged as “86 47,” which prosecutors allege constituted a true threat against President Trump under 18 U.S.C. §§ 871(a) and 875(c).** The case, filed April 28, 2026, follows dismissal of an earlier Virginia indictment on procedural grounds. Comey’s defense has filed motions to dismiss arguing lack of a true threat, protected speech, and selective or vindictive prosecution, with the DOJ opposing those filings as of mid-August. Arraignment is set for September 30 and trial for October 21.
The 97.5% trader consensus on “No” reflects the early procedural stage, high evidentiary and constitutional hurdles for conviction on threat charges, the time typically required for trial, sentencing, and appeals, and the low likelihood of resolution and punishment occurring before December 31, 2026. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include denial of dismissal motions, a swift guilty plea or verdict with immediate sentencing, or other late-breaking legal developments within the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former FBI director James Comey is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Comey is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against James Comey for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Comey is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against James Comey for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 2:28 PM ET
Volume
$157,949End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if former FBI director James Comey is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Comey is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against James Comey for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**James Comey faces a pending federal indictment in the Eastern District of North Carolina on two counts stemming from a May 2025 Instagram post depicting seashells arranged as “86 47,” which prosecutors allege constituted a true threat against President Trump under 18 U.S.C. §§ 871(a) and 875(c).** The case, filed April 28, 2026, follows dismissal of an earlier Virginia indictment on procedural grounds. Comey’s defense has filed motions to dismiss arguing lack of a true threat, protected speech, and selective or vindictive prosecution, with the DOJ opposing those filings as of mid-August. Arraignment is set for September 30 and trial for October 21.
The 97.5% trader consensus on “No” reflects the early procedural stage, high evidentiary and constitutional hurdles for conviction on threat charges, the time typically required for trial, sentencing, and appeals, and the low likelihood of resolution and punishment occurring before December 31, 2026. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include denial of dismissal motions, a swift guilty plea or verdict with immediate sentencing, or other late-breaking legal developments within the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former FBI director James Comey is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Comey is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against James Comey for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Comey is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against James Comey for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$157,949End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**James Comey faces a pending federal indictment in the Eastern District of North Carolina on two counts stemming from a May 2025 Instagram post depicting seashells arranged as “86 47,” which prosecutors allege constituted a true threat against President Trump under 18 U.S.C. §§ 871(a) and 875(c).** The case, filed April 28, 2026, follows dismissal of an earlier Virginia indictment on procedural grounds. Comey’s defense has filed motions to dismiss arguing lack of a true threat, protected speech, and selective or vindictive prosecution, with the DOJ opposing those filings as of mid-August. Arraignment is set for September 30 and trial for October 21. The 97.5% trader consensus on “No” reflects the early procedural stage, high evidentiary and constitutional hurdles for conviction on threat charges, the time typically required for trial, sentencing, and appeals, and the low likelihood of resolution and punishment occurring before December 31, 2026. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include denial of dismissal motions, a swift guilty plea or verdict with immediate sentencing, or other late-breaking legal developments within the calendar year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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